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Who Wins? - Predicting Strategic Success and Failure in Armed Conflict (Paperback)
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Who Wins? - Predicting Strategic Success and Failure in Armed Conflict (Paperback)
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Despite their immense war-fighting capacity, the five most powerful
states in the international system have failed to attain their
primary political objective in almost 40% of their military
operations against weak state and non-state targets since 1945. Why
are states with tremendous military might so often unable to attain
their objectives when they use force against weaker adversaries?
More broadly, under what conditions can states use military force
to attain their political objectives and what conditions limit the
utility of military force as a policy instrument? Can we predict
the outcome of a war before the fighting begins?
Scholars and military leaders have argued that poor military
strategy choices, domestic political constraints on democratic
governments, or failure to commit sufficient resources to the war
effort can explain why strong states lose small wars. In contrast,
Who Wins? by Patricia L. Sullivan argues that the key to
understanding strategic success in war lies in the nature of the
political objectives states pursue through the use of military
force. Sullvian does not deny the importance of war-fighting
capacity, military strategies, or resolve as determinants of war
outcomes. But she provides both a coherent argument and substantial
empirical evidence that the effects of these factors are dependent
on the nature of the belligerents' political objectives.
The theory's predictions about the conditions under which states
are able to attain their political objectives through the use of
military force are tested against the most widely accepted
alternative explanations of war outcomes with an abundance of
historical data on violent conflicts. The results support
Sullivan's argument and challenge both existing theories and
conventional wisdom about the impact of factors like military
strength, resolve, regime type, and war-fighting strategies on war
outcomes.
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