This paper reports the results of a project to estimate and test
the stability properties of conventional equations relating real
imports and exports of goods and services for the G-7 countries to
their incomes and relative prices. We begin by estimating
cointegration vectors and the error-correction formulations. We
then test the stability of these equations using Chow and
Kalman-Filter tests. The evidence suggests three findings. First,
conventional trade equations and elasticities are stable enough, in
most cases, to perform adequately in forecasting and policy
simulations. Equations for German trade, as well as equations for
French and Italian exports, are an exception. Second, income
elasticities of U.S. trade have not been shifting in a direction
that will tend to ease the trend toward deterioration in the U.S.
trade position. The income-elasticity gap for Japan found in
earlier studies was not confirmed in this analysis. Finally, the
price channel is weak, if not wholly ineffective, in the case of
continental European countries.
General
| Imprint: |
Bibliogov
|
| Country of origin: |
United States |
| Release date: |
February 2013 |
| First published: |
February 2013 |
| Authors: |
Peter Hooper
|
| Dimensions: |
246 x 189 x 6mm (L x W x T) |
| Format: |
Paperback - Trade
|
| Pages: |
116 |
| ISBN-13: |
978-1-288-73354-5 |
| Categories: |
Books >
Social sciences >
Politics & government >
General
|
| LSN: |
1-288-73354-2 |
| Barcode: |
9781288733545 |
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