The authors report on the benefits and costs of California's new
mandatory-sentencing law, which provides for progressively longer
sentences with an increasing number of prior convictions for
serious felonies. The authors find that the new law, if fully
implemented, will decrease serious crime committed by adults by
about 28 percent at a cost of an extra $5.5 billion a year.
Alternatives that narrow the law's application result in a lower
benefit but an even greater reduction in costs. The authors were
also able to devise an alternative that resulted in the same
crime-reduction benefit for lower cost. The authors conclude that
the state budget cuts required to fund the new law will be so great
that it is unlikely to be fully implemented.
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