Counterfactual reasoning evaluates conditional claims about
alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., "What If"
statements). Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence
analysis. The process of counterfactual reasoning has three stages.
First, one must establish the particular way in which the alternate
possibility comes to be (i.e., develop its "back-story"). Second,
one must evaluate the events that occur between the time of the
alternate possibility and the time for which one is considering its
consequences. And third, one must examine the possible consequences
of the alternate possibility's back-story and the events that
follow it. In doing so, an analyst must connect conclusions to
specific types of strategic assessment: decision making under risk
or decision making under uncertainty. This book includes notes,
glossary and references. (Noel Hendrickson is Director of the
Institute for National Security Analysis. Originally published by
Proteus.)
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