From Census Bureau surveys in 1972 and 1974, political scientists
Wolfinger (Berkeley) and Rosenstone (Yale) have come to an array of
significant, sometimes startling conclusions about U.S. voting
patterns and voters' behavior. The single most important variable,
they find, is education - with income and occupation distinctly
subsidiary. Among occupation groups, farmers are the likeliest to
vote - because of "the variety of their relations with government,"
the authors suggest, and "the wide fluctuations in their economic
fortunes," which they attribute to government actions. Women
overall are only slightly less likely to vote than men; but among
elderly women, the decline in turnout is much Steeper than among
elderly men (because women lose physical vigor sooner? because
today's women were born into a male-dominated world? and these very
women are widows?). Still, "aging by itself produces not a decline
but an increase in turnout." Among the young, "students vote at a
much higher rate than non-students." However, that increase in
turnout among the aging is greatest for those with the least formal
schooling - which suggests not only that the effect of education
diminishes with age, but that experience is an effective teacher
(both in "coping with bureaucratic hurdles and thinking about
political material"). Proceeding to deterrents, Wolfinger and
Rosenstone note that "registration is usually more difficult than
voting"; and they project a 9. 1 percent increase in voter turnout
were every state to adopt four liberalizing provisions (the most
permissive in force anywhere in 1972), beginning with eliminating
the closing date. If this were done, however, and the turnout rose
- "the expanded voting population . . . would be remarkably similar
to the actual voters." In other words, and contrary to every
assumption, the partisan political effect would be almost nil:
Democratic candidates and liberal causes would not benefit. The
reader may now anticipate the authors' capstone finding-that voters
are representative of the populace as a whole ("The most likely to
be under represented are people who lack opinions"). Some
reassurance, then, for those disturbed by the low U.S. turnout, and
a host of other implications that are sure to be discussed and
disputed. (Kirkus Reviews)
Elections are at the heart of the American political system, but in
1976 only 54 percent of the voting age population went to the
polls. The question of who votes matters greatly to everyone
involved in politics and to all those concerned about the current
and future state of American democracy. Based on data from the 1972
and 1974 Census Bureau surveys, Wolfinger and Rosenstone are able
to identify for the first time those social and economic groups
that are most likely to vote and to explain sensibly and
convincingly those factors that influence voter turnout.
General
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