Cognition and Chance - The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning (Hardcover, New)

The ability to think probabilistically is important for many reasons. Lack of it makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naivete, precludes intelligent assessment of risks, ensures the operation of several common biases, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims, and generally undercuts rational thinking in numerous ways. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the necessary information needed to make educated assumptions about the statistical or probabilistic characteristics of a situation to better prepare the reader to make intelligent assessments of risk, enhance decision making under uncertainty, facilitate the understanding of statistical information, and critically evaluate the likelihood of clams. For this reason, the book appeals to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and those who evaluate social dilemmas. The only prerequisite is standard high school math. individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent is their reasoning under uncertainty given the principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. It reviews the evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters analyze such things as probability and chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes and dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers by examining such issues as estimation and prediction, perception and covariance, choice under uncertainty, and intuition.

General

Imprint:	Psychology Press
Country of origin:	United States
Release date:	May 2004
First published:	2004
Authors:	Raymond S Nickerson
Dimensions:	229 x 152 x 35mm (L x W x T)
Format:	Hardcover
Pages:	472
Edition:	New
ISBN-13:	978-0-8058-4898-4
Categories:	Books > Social sciences > Psychology > Cognition & cognitive psychology > Intelligence Promotions
LSN:	0-8058-4898-3
Barcode:	9780805848984

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