"In this book," wrote the late Quincy Wright, "Richard Barringer
has made a contribution to the study of international conflict by
devising a new method of classifying empirical data to characterize
conflict and its stages of development, with results of
considerable predictive value."Historians have long applied
experienced judgment to distill the most significant factors in the
development of large-scale conflict, and modern social scientists
have attempted to reduce its acknowledged multidimensionality to
manageable proportions by the application of correlation-based
factorial techniques. The present study represents a new departure
in this oldest and most persistent of civilized man's intellectual
preoccupations. It establishes the beginnings of an objective,
systematic, and automated program of research into the origins,
development, and termination of war, and into the means of its
control.An eclectic theory of conflict, a descriptive model of its
significant stages, a novel technique of data collection, and an
original method of data manipulation, analysis, and presentation
are developed. A conflict codebook of 300 social, political,
economic, and military indicators is presented as a comprehensive
system within which all conflicts develop. Agreement analysis -- a
noncorrelational technique for determining the dominant empirical
patterns in a data base -- is developed in its complete
form.Application of the method to eighteen wars of the twentieth
century reveals the various combinations of factors that
precipitate each significant stage of conflict. Finally, the
contribution of this method to policy making, through computer
simulation of conflict and early detection of conflict potential,
is illustrated by example of the war in Vietnam.
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