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Choosing the More Likely Hypothesis (Paperback)
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Choosing the More Likely Hypothesis (Paperback)
Series: Foundations and Trends (R) in Econometrics
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Much of economists' statistical work centers on testing hypotheses
in which parameter values are partitioned between a null hypothesis
and an alternative hypothesis in order to distinguish two views
about the world. Our traditional procedures are based on the
probabilities of a test statistic under the null but ignore what
the statistics say about the probability of the test statistic
under the alternative. Traditional procedures are not intended to
provide evidence for the relative probabilities of the null versus
alternative hypotheses, but are regularly treated as if they do.
Unfortunately, when used to distinguish two views of the world,
traditional procedures can lead to wildly misleading inference. In
order to correctly distinguish between two views of the world, one
needs to report the probabilities of the hypotheses given parameter
estimates rather than the probability of the parameter estimates
given the hypotheses. Choosing the More Likely Hypothesis shows why
failing to consider the alternative hypothesis often leads to
incorrect conclusions. It shows that for most standard econometric
estimators, it is not difficult to compute the proper probabilities
using Bayes theorem. Simple formulas that require only readily
available information in standard estimation reports are provided.
The author emphasizes that frequentist approaches for deciding
between the null and alternative hypothesis are not free of priors.
Rather, the usual procedures involve an implicit, unstated prior
that is likely to be far from scientifically neutral.
General
Imprint: |
Now Publishers Inc
|
Country of origin: |
United States |
Series: |
Foundations and Trends (R) in Econometrics |
Release date: |
November 2014 |
First published: |
2014 |
Authors: |
Richard Startz
|
Dimensions: |
234 x 156 x 5mm (L x W x T) |
Format: |
Paperback
|
Pages: |
90 |
ISBN-13: |
978-1-60198-898-0 |
Categories: |
Books >
Business & Economics >
Economics >
Econometrics >
General
|
LSN: |
1-60198-898-2 |
Barcode: |
9781601988980 |
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