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Bayes, Bugs, and Bioterrorists - Lessons Learned from the Anthrax Attacks (Paperback)
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Bayes, Bugs, and Bioterrorists - Lessons Learned from the Anthrax Attacks (Paperback)
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Loot Price R404
Discovery Miles 4 040
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The U.S. government continues to improve its plans for protecting
civilians and soldiers from attacks with biological weapons. Part
of this effort focuses on developing strategies that recognize the
difficult choices to be made in using and deploying resources. This
paper presents a risk- and decision-based framework-derived from
the field of Bayesian statistics-for developing strategies that
facilitate managing the risks of biological agents. The framework
recognizes the significantly different attributes of potential
biological weapons and offers a strategy for improving
communication to effectively coordinate national biopreparedness
efforts. The framework identifies generic decisions related to
routine immunization, response planning, stockpiling vaccines and
therapeutic agents, surveillance choices, containment, emergency
response training, research, media and communications preparations,
information management, and policy development. This paper provides
a straw man to be used in wargames, exercises, practices, etc., at
all levels of government. Given the attention on anthrax following
the 2001 attacks, this paper applies the framework to managing the
risks of anthrax to provide an illustrative example. The example
demonstrates that by organizing information at this level, decision
makers can quickly understand the critical connections between
different options (e.g., vaccinating with a new vaccine requires an
investment in research; research might increase the opportunities
for breaches of containment). With respect to managing the risks of
an attack with anthrax, this analysis suggests the need for
creation of a comprehensive national management plan that includes
quantitative evaluation of resource investments. The authors
conclude that the government should adopt a process-based on
decision science and using the power of decision trees as an
analytical tool-to develop a strategy for managing the risks of
bioterrorism. Using this type of approach, the government can
better characterize the costs, risks and benefits of different
policy options and ensure the integration of policy development.
Additionally, confirmed use and refinement of decision trees during
exercises will provide analysis of the long-term consequences of
decisions made during an event and give policymakers insights to
improve initial decisions.
General
Imprint: |
Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
|
Country of origin: |
United States |
Release date: |
July 2012 |
First published: |
July 2012 |
Authors: |
Robert E. Armstrong
• Donald F. Thompson
• National Defense University
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Dimensions: |
280 x 216 x 4mm (L x W x T) |
Format: |
Paperback - Trade
|
Pages: |
68 |
ISBN-13: |
978-1-4781-9510-8 |
Categories: |
Books
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LSN: |
1-4781-9510-X |
Barcode: |
9781478195108 |
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