Why have some interstate crises escalated to war when other have
not? Are there patterns of behavior that war-prone disputes share
in common? These are some of the questions considered by Russell
Leng as he examines the behavior of nations in forty militarised
crises occurring between 1816 and 1980. Leng considers the
conditions under which crises are more or less likely to escalate
to war or be resolved peacefully and compares the descriptive and
prescriptive validity of two competing perspectives on conflict
behavior: classical realism and the psychological approaches of
behavioral scientists. The author concludes that elements of both
realist and psychological perspectives are necessary for an
adequate understanding of interstate crisis behavior and that the
most effective approach to crisis bargaining combines each
perspective in a firm-but-flexible 'reciprocating' strategy. The
epilogue presents a provocative critique of the bargaining
strategies pursued by the United States and Iraq during the Gulf
Crisis of 1990-1991.
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