Following the U.S. killing of Qasem Soleimani, head of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), the United States
and Iran are involved in an escalating conflict. What is badly
needed now is a coherent long-term U.S. strategy to deal with Iran
in ways that protect U.S. national security and leverage U.S.
partners. The United States' "maximum pressure" campaign has not
led to a change in Iran's behavior-at least not yet-though U.S.
sanctions have severely damaged Iran's economy. As this CSIS report
highlights with new data and analysis, the IRGC-QF has supported a
growing number of non-state fighters in Yemen, Syria, Iraq,
Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Pakistan-including nearly a 50 percent
increase since 2016. Thanks to Iran, these forces are better
equipped with more sophisticated weapons and systems. This report
also uses satellite imagery to identify an expansion of
IRGC-QF-linked bases in countries like Iran and Lebanon to train
non-state fighters. Iran has constructed more sophisticated and
longer-range ballistic and cruise missiles and conducted missile
attacks against countries like Saudi Arabia. In addition, Iran has
developed offensive cyber capabilities and used them against the
United States and its partners. In the nuclear arena, Iran has
ended commitments it made to limit uranium enrichment, production,
research, and expansion-raising the prospect of Iranian nuclear
weapons. Moving forward, the United States should implement a
containment strategy against Iran that attempts to de-escalate the
current military situation and work toward achieving several goals:
Prevent Iran from becoming a regional hegemon capable of dominating
other states in the Middle East. Stop nuclear proliferation in the
region and prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, including
thwarting Iran from pursuing weapons-grade uranium enrichment,
warhead development, and plutonium reprocessing. Curb significant
Iranian military, political, and ideological expansion in the
region, including the export of Iran's revolutionary ideology.
Encourage a process of change inside Iran toward a more pluralistic
political and economic system in which the power of the clerical
establishment is gradually reduced. This report highlights a range
of weaknesses that make Iran vulnerable to containment and lays out
the political, military, economic, and informational components of
such a strategy. The United States needs to credibly demonstrate
that its policy toward Iran is not a blueprint for an endless
struggle, but instead an effort to encourage Iran to be more
democratic and open, as political and economic change must be
driven by Iranians themselves.
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