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A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections (Hardcover, 2013 ed.)
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A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections (Hardcover, 2013 ed.)
Series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, 37
Expected to ship within 12 - 17 working days
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This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and
local population projections. It describes the most commonly used
data sources and application techniques for four types of
projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation,
structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of
population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions,
the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of
forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of
various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique
problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors
provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market
analysts, and others called on to construct state and local
population projections. They use many examples and illustrations
and present suggestions for dealing with special populations,
unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They
describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to
another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing
age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related
variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the
role of judgment and the importance of the political context in
which projections are made. They emphasize the "utility" of
projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of
competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book
will provide readers with an understanding not only of the
mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods,
but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction,
interpretation, evaluation, and use.
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