The main objective of this research paper is to select an
appropriate model for time series forecasting of total import of
Bangladesh. The decision through out this study is mainly concerned
with autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model,
holt-winters' trend and seasonality model with seasonality modeled
additively and vector autoregressive(VAR) model with some other
relevant variables. In this research the analysis has been done on
a set of data based on total import of Bangladesh during the period
July 1998 to July 2009. Here an approach is made to derive a unique
and suitable forecasting model of total import of Bangladesh. From
the study it is found that vector autoregressive model of total
import of Bangladesh, where, total export of Bangladesh and net
foreign asset of Bangladesh are taken as other endogenous
variables, gives us less forecasting error than that of others. So,
it is proposed that for forecasting total import of Bangladesh one
can use this VAR model. But before using this model one must verify
the validation of the model in different time periods, because a
forecasting model may not remain valid and suitable as time
changes.
General
Imprint: |
VDM Verlag
|
Country of origin: |
Germany |
Release date: |
December 2010 |
First published: |
December 2010 |
Authors: |
Tanvir Khan
|
Dimensions: |
229 x 152 x 7mm (L x W x T) |
Format: |
Paperback - Trade
|
Pages: |
120 |
ISBN-13: |
978-3-639-31788-6 |
Categories: |
Books >
Business & Economics >
Economics >
General
|
LSN: |
3-639-31788-2 |
Barcode: |
9783639317886 |
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