This paper uses news reports about two deficit-reduction laws of
the past decade to identify days when expected fiscal policy
clearly became more or less expansionary. The paper also proposes a
technique for identifying whether the real interest rate increased
or decreased on those days, based on changes in the nominal
interest rate, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and stock
prices. As economic theory predicts, higher expected government
spending and budget deficits raised real interest rates and the
value of the dollar, while lower expected spending and deficits
reduced real rates and the value of the dollar.
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