We combine publicly available data from Freddie Mac, the Decennial
Census of Housing, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis to construct
the first constant-quality aggregate price index for the stock of
residential land in the United States. We uncover five main
results: (a) since 1970, residential land prices have grown faster
but (b) have also been twice as volatile as existing home prices;
(c) averaged from 1970 to 2003, the nominal stock of residential
land under 1-4 unit structures accounts for 38% of the market value
of the housing stock and is equal to 50% of nominal annual GDP; (d)
the real stock of residential land under 1-4 unit structures has
increased an average of 0.6% per year since 1970; and (e)
residential investment leads the price of residential land by three
quarters. We also estimate that in 2003: Q3 the nominal value of
the entire stock of residential land is the same as annual GDP.
Finally, we show for the US data that the logarithms of the nominal
price index for residential land, disposable income, and interest
rates are cointegrated.
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