The Middle East is undergoing an era of revolutionary change that
is challenging the foreign policies of the United States and
virtually all regional states. In this new environment,
opportunities and challenges exist for a number of regional and
extra-regional states to advance their national interests, while
attempting to marginalize those of their rivals. Despite these
changes, the Arab Spring and revolutions in countries such as
Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya have not altered some of the more
fundamental aspects of the Middle East regional situation. One of
the most important rivalries defining the strategic landscape of
the Middle East is between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The competition
between these two states is long-standing, but it is especially
important now. Political relationships that have endured for
decades, such as the one between Iran and Syria, now seem to be in
some danger, depending upon how current struggles play out. The
stakes in this rivalry can thus become higher in an environment of
revolutionary upheaval. In this monograph, Dr. W. Andrew Terrill
considers an old rivalry as it transitions into a new environment.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have been rivals since at least the 1979
Iranian Islamic Revolution. As Dr. Terrill points out, this
competition has taken a variety of forms and was especially intense
in the aftermath of the Iranian revolution. Under Iranian President
Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), the rivalry relaxed to some extent,
but a permanent detente was not possible because of a backlash
within the Iranian political system. The successor presidency of
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad further damaged relations and the Saudi-Iranian
relationship was dealt an especially serious setback over the
Saudi-led intervention into Bahrain. Because the current
Saudi-Iranian rivalry is taking place in a variety of countries of
interest to the United States, an awareness of the motivations and
issues associated with the rivalry is important to U.S.
policymakers. Dr. Terrill clearly identifies the struggle as
region-wide, encompassing countries as far apart as Egypt, Bahrain,
Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and especially Iraq, where the United States
is preparing to withdraw almost all of its troops. He also notes
that while U.S. interests often overlap with those of Saudi Arabia,
such is not always the case. Saudi Arabia and the United States
often work well together in seeking to contain Iranian influence,
but Saudi Arabia also is an absolute monarchy opposed to Arab
democracy or any democratic reform of the existing monarchical
systems. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer this
monograph as a contribution to the national security debate on this
important subject, as our nation continues to grapple with a
variety of problems associated with the future of the Middle East
and the ongoing challenge of advancing U.S. interests in a time of
Middle East turbulence. This analysis should be especially useful
to U.S. strategic leaders and intelligence professionals as they
seek to address the complicated interplay of factors related to
regional security issues, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq,
fighting terrorism, and providing for the support of local allies.
This work may also benefit those seeking better understanding of
long-range issues of Middle Eastern and global security. We hope
this work will be of benefit to officers of all services, as well
as other U.S. government officials involved in military and
security assistance planning. Strategic Studies Institute.
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