We are all familiar with the popular and academic analyses of the
ongoing and future ascent of China. Two of the associated questions
are whether and when China might succeed the United States as the
lead state in the world system. These are interesting questions,
albeit ones that are not likely to be answered in the immediate
future. An alternative focus examines instead periods of systemic
transition - eras in which it is conceivable that a new leader
might emerge at the expense of an older system leader. Framing the
question this way presumes that a) future systemic transitions
remain a possibility and b) transitions do not occur abruptly but
may require several decades to set up structural situations in
which a transition might take place. Neither of these assumptions
are carved in stone and are open to question. It may be that future
systemic transitions are unlikely. Or, it may be that they will not
occur as they have in the past. All of these possibilities are
assessed from a variety of different perspectives.
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