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The Indus Basin of Pakistan - The Impacts of Climate Risks on Water and Agriculture (Paperback, New)
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The Indus Basin of Pakistan - The Impacts of Climate Risks on Water and Agriculture (Paperback, New)
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This book was undertaken at a pivotal time in the region. The weak
summer monsoon in 2009 created drought conditions throughout
Pakistan. This followed an already tenuous situation for many rural
households faced with high fuel and fertilizer costs and the
impacts of rising global food prices. Then catastrophic monsoon
flooding in 2010 affected over 20 million people, devastating their
housing, infrastructure, and crops. Damages from this single flood
event were estimated at US$10 billion, half of which were losses in
the agriculture sector. Notwithstanding the debate as to whether
these observed extremes are evidence of climate change, an
investigation is needed regarding the extent to which the country
is resilient to these shocks. It is thus timely, if not critical,
to focus on climate risks for water, agriculture, and food security
in the Indus Basin in Pakistan. This study uses several different
modelling environments including hydrologic models, an
agro-economic optimisation model of the irrigation system, and a
computable general equilibrium model of the Pakistan economy. The
models used here are among the best mathematical representations
available of the physical and economic responses to these exogenous
future climate risks. The integrated systems framework used in this
analysis provides a broad and unique approach to estimating the
hydrologic and crop impacts of climate change risks, the
macro-economic and household-level responses and an effective
method for assessing a variety of adaptation investments and
policies. A better understanding of how these sectors are linked
will help plan future investments in these sectors. Further
collection and analysis of critical input and output observations
(e.g. snow and ice data) as well as practical measures for
improving productivity under a changing climate will enhance this
integrated framework methodology and future climate impact
assessments. Continued refinements to the assessment approach
developed in this volume will further help to sharpen critical
policies and interventions by the Pakistan government.
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