The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and Implications for the Central Region addresses national security threats and strategic opportunities for the United States and its allies in the Middle East and Central Asia following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Recognizing that integrated deterrence is not constrained by geography or domain, this book focuses on the complex threats and challenges confronting U.S. national security and foreign policy in a post-Ukraine invasion environment. That is to say, what happens in Ukraine does not stay in Ukraine. It affects everyone from the region to the cyberspace domain to people on the other side of the world, due to changes in commodity prices. Specifically, this volume explores how revised analyses of Russia may alter U.S. and allied strategies in a shifting international system and within the framing of strategic competition. Experts in this volume examine how the war in Ukraine will influence Russian strategy and foreign policy in the Middle East, Central Asia, and globally; what effect the Ukraine invasion could have on global and regional geopolitics and geoeconomics; and the United States’ ability to protect national interests in the Central Region. The reasons for this are multiple and complex. In this volume, we explore many issues that have confounded security experts by asking questions such as: What happens after the Russian invasion? What lessons did the U.S., Ukraine, NATO, and the European Union learn about Russia? What lessons did Russia learn about itself and its military after the Ukraine invasion? What lessons did the U.S. learn in Afghanistan that apply to Ukraine? Why was the initial analysis of the Russian invasion so wrong? How has power shifted in the international system since the Ukraine invasion? How has the security environment shifted since the Ukraine invasion? For the U.S. to continue supporting its partners in the Middle East and Central Asia, it must anticipate what new opportunities will arise from Russia’s missteps in Ukraine. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and Implications for the Central Region addresses these challenges and opportunities and informs policymakers on the changing contours of the Great Power Competition.

Over the past decade, the international political system has come to be characterized as a Great Power Competition in which multiple would-be hegemons compete for power and influence. Instead of a global climate of unchallenged United States dominance, revisionist powers, notably China and Russia alongside other regional powers, are vying for dominance through political, military, and economic means. A critical battleground in the Great Power Competition is the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, and the Central Asia South Asia (CASA), also known as the Central Region. With the planned withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Afghanistan, the U.S. has stated its intention of shifting attention away from the CASA Region in favor of a more isolationist foreign policy approach. This book provides an in-depth understanding of the implications for this shift related to regional diplomacy & politics, economic opportunities & rivalries, security considerations & interests, and the information environment. Amplifying the vital importance of success in the Central Region to U.S. prosperity and security, this volume advances dialogue in identifying key issues for stakeholders within and beyond the Central Region to gain a holistic perspective that better informs decision-making at various levels. This collection of work comes from scholars, strategic thinkers, and subject matter experts who participated in the Great Power Competition Conference hosted by the University of South Florida, in partnership with the National Defense University Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Strategies in January 2020.

Since 9/11, the United States and its allies have been waging an endless War on Terror to counter violent extremism by "winning hearts and minds," particularly in Afghanistan. However, violent extremism remains on the rise worldwide. The effort and sacrifice of the War on Terror have been continually undermined by actions, narratives, and policies that many of the 1.8 billion Muslims worldwide perceive as Islamophobic. Incidents of Islamophobia on the part of Western governments, media, and civilians, whether intentional or unintentional, alienate the majority of Muslims who are law-abiding and would be key allies in the fight against violent extremism. In Afghanistan, for example, violent extremist groups portray U.S. and NATO forces as blasphemous, anti-Muslim invaders to frighten Afghan villagers into compliance. A similar perception weakens domestic countering violent extremism programs in the West that rely on cooperation with Muslim communities. As the Great Powers Competition emerges among the U.S., Russia, and China, America and the West can ill afford any further impairment in their counterterrorism strategy. The dangers of Islamophobia must be recognized and eradicated immediately. In Countering Violent Extremism by Winning Hearts and Minds, Adib Farhadi demonstrates how Islamophobia poses a threat to U.S. national security by utilizing historical context, statistical analysis, and in-depth case studies. Farhadi, who headed Afghanistan's National Development Strategy, describes how Koran burnings, anti-Islamic rhetoric, and racial profiling harm relationships with the majority of Muslims who are not involved in violent extremism and thus perpetuate the War on Terror. America has sacrificed thousands of lives and has spent more than $6 trillion on the War on Terror. It can ill afford to squander more valuable resources in a strategy undermined by Islamophobia or perception of Islamophobia. As Farhadi explains, only through a reconciliatory narrative, can we work toward a shared future where violent extremism is eradicated. This book is essential reading for scholars, policymakers, practitioners, and executives who are invested in maintaining and rebuilding American credibility essential to global security and peace.

For millennia, humans waged war on land and sea. The 20th century opened the skies and the stars, introducing air and space as warfare domains. Now, the 21st century has revealed perhaps the most insidious domain of all: cyberspace, the fifth domain. A realm free of physical boundaries, cyberspace lies at the intersection of technology and psychology, where one cannot see one's enemy, and the most potent weapon is information. The third book in the Great Power Competition series, Cyberspace: The Fifth Domain, explores the emergence of cyberspace as a vector for espionage, sabotage, crime, and war. It examines how cyberspace rapidly evolved from a novelty to a weapon capable of influencing global economics and overthrowing regimes, wielded by nation-states and religious ideologies to stunning effect. Cyberspace: The Fifth Domain offers a candid look at the United States' role in cyberspace, offering realistic prescriptions for responding to international cyber threats on the tactical, strategic, and doctrinal levels, answering the questions of how can we respond to these threats versus how should we respond? What are the obstacles to and consequences of strategic and tactical response options? What technological solutions are on the horizon? Should the U.S. adopt a more multi-domain offensive posture that eschews the dominant "cyber vs. cyber" paradigm? To answer these questions, experts examine the technological threats to critical infrastructure; cyber operations strategy, tactics, and doctrine; information influence operations; the weaponization of social media; and much more.

Lessons Learned from Afghanistan: America's Longest War examines the lessons of how America's "longest war" came to an ignominious end with staggering consequences for the United States and the Afghan nation. Afghanistan today faces an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, looming threat of a civil war and a resurgence of violent extremism organizations similar to pre-9/11. As the U.S. enters a new era in the strategic geopolitical Great Power Competition, an analysis of the original mission intent, shifting policy and strategic objectives, and ineffective implementation of security, political and economic programs reveal critical lessons and questions such as: What led to the "strategic failure" of the U.S. in Afghanistan? What decisions resulted in the present-day humanitarian, civil, and political crises in Afghanistan? Were these consequences in fact avoidable? Was there an alternative approach that could have maintained the hard-fought gains of the last two decades, and better demonstrated America's standing as a defender of global human rights? Lessons Learned from Afghanistan: America's Longest War further explores lessons of the past negotiations between the United States, Taliban, and former U.S. backed Afghan government to suggest alternative pathways that honor the original intent of the mission and meet present-day obligations to an Afghan nation in crisis.

Over the past decade, the international political system has come to be characterized as a Great Power Competition in which multiple would-be hegemons compete for power and influence. Instead of a global climate of unchallenged United States dominance, revisionist powers, notably China and Russia alongside other regional powers, are vying for dominance through political, military, and economic means. A critical battleground in the Great Power Competition is the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, and the Central Asia South Asia (CASA), also known as the Central Region. With the planned withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Afghanistan, the U.S. has stated its intention of shifting attention away from the CASA Region in favor of a more isolationist foreign policy approach. This book provides an in-depth understanding of the implications for this shift related to regional diplomacy & politics, economic opportunities & rivalries, security considerations & interests, and the information environment. Amplifying the vital importance of success in the Central Region to U.S. prosperity and security, this volume advances dialogue in identifying key issues for stakeholders within and beyond the Central Region to gain a holistic perspective that better informs decision-making at various levels. This collection of work comes from scholars, strategic thinkers, and subject matter experts who participated in the Great Power Competition Conference hosted by the University of South Florida, in partnership with the National Defense University Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Strategies in January 2020.

Since 9/11, the United States and its allies have been waging an endless War on Terror to counter violent extremism by "winning hearts and minds," particularly in Afghanistan. However, violent extremism remains on the rise worldwide. The effort and sacrifice of the War on Terror have been continually undermined by actions, narratives, and policies that many of the 1.8 billion Muslims worldwide perceive as Islamophobic. Incidents of Islamophobia on the part of Western governments, media, and civilians, whether intentional or unintentional, alienate the majority of Muslims who are law-abiding and would be key allies in the fight against violent extremism. In Afghanistan, for example, violent extremist groups portray U.S. and NATO forces as blasphemous, anti-Muslim invaders to frighten Afghan villagers into compliance. A similar perception weakens domestic countering violent extremism programs in the West that rely on cooperation with Muslim communities. As the Great Powers Competition emerges among the U.S., Russia, and China, America and the West can ill afford any further impairment in their counterterrorism strategy. The dangers of Islamophobia must be recognized and eradicated immediately. In Countering Violent Extremism by Winning Hearts and Minds, Adib Farhadi demonstrates how Islamophobia poses a threat to U.S. national security by utilizing historical context, statistical analysis, and in-depth case studies. Farhadi, who headed Afghanistan's National Development Strategy, describes how Koran burnings, anti-Islamic rhetoric, and racial profiling harm relationships with the majority of Muslims who are not involved in violent extremism and thus perpetuate the War on Terror. America has sacrificed thousands of lives and has spent more than $6 trillion on the War on Terror. It can ill afford to squander more valuable resources in a strategy undermined by Islamophobia or perception of Islamophobia. As Farhadi explains, only through a reconciliatory narrative, can we work toward a shared future where violent extremism is eradicated. This book is essential reading for scholars, policymakers, practitioners, and executives who are invested in maintaining and rebuilding American credibility essential to global security and peace.

Even before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Central Region faced numerous obstacles to building a stable and prosperous future. The region, which encompasses the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, Central Asia, and South Asia, has been plagued by economic and political uncertainty amidst dramatic shifts in the global power structure. With the pandemic now exacerbating the volatility in this already fragile region, the U.S.'s strategic objectives are rife for re-examination. A complicated stew of factors such as weakening of established governance systems, the emboldening of extremist individuals and groups through advances in digital technology, the humanitarian crises in Afghanistan and Syria, and the intensification of the great power competition with China and Russia are creating a fertile environment for the growth of violent extremist organizations (VEOs). Such organizations take advantage of vulnerable, aggrieved, and traumatized populations to fuel radicalization, recruitment, and unrest, which further undermine stability and the potential for peace and prosperity. While it is still early to fully understand how the ongoing response to the COVID-19 pandemic will impact U.S. policy, this book provides a timely analysis of relevant dynamics such as popular radicalization, digital information ecosystems, networks of influence, and new capabilities to recognize and prepare for other such black swan events in the region.