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This book presents a new System Dynamics model (the ERRE model), a
novel stock and flow consistent global impact assessment model
designed by the authors to address the financial risks emerging
from the interaction between economic growth and environmental
limits under the presence of shocks. Building on the World3-03
Limits to Growth model, the ERRE links the financial system with
the energy, agriculture and climate systems through the real
economy, by means of feedback loops, time lags and non-linear
rationally bounded decision making. Prices and their interaction
with growth, inflation and interest rates are assumed to be the
main driver of economic failure while reaching planetary limits.
The model allows for the stress-testing of fat tail extreme risk
scenarios, such as climate shocks, energy transition, monetary
policies and carbon taxes. Risks are addressed via scenario
analyses, compared to real available data, and assessed in terms of
the economic theory that lies behind. The book outlines the case
for a government led system change within this decade, where the
market alone cannot lead to sustainable prosperity. This book will
be of great interest to scholars of climate change, behavioural,
ecological and evolutionary economics, green finance, and
sustainable development.
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