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This study explores Iranian influence in Afghanistan and the
implications for the United States after most U.S. forces depart
Afghanistan in 2014. Iran has substantial economic, political,
cultural, and religious leverage in Afghanistan. Although Iran will
attempt to shape a post-2014 Afghanistan, Iran and the United
States share core interests: to prevent the country from again
becoming dominated by the Taliban and a safe haven for al Qaeda.
Turkey and Iran tend to be rivals rather than close partners,
despite sharing certain economic and security interests. For
instance, Turkey supports the opposition in Syria, while Iran
supports the regime. Turkey is further concerned about a possible
nuclear arms race in the Middle East. U.S. and Turkish interests in
the region closely overlap, but the United States should not expect
Turkey to follow its policy toward Iran unconditionally.
It is not inevitable that Iran will acquire nuclear weapons or even
that it will gain the capacity to quickly produce them. U.S. and
even Israeli analysts continually push their estimates for such an
event further into the future. Nevertheless, absent a change in
Iranian policy, it is reasonable to assume that, some time in the
coming decade, Iran will acquire such a capability. Most recent
scholarly studies have also focused on how to prevent Iran from
acquiring nuclear weapons. Other, less voluminous writing looks at
what to do after Iran becomes a nuclear power. What has so far been
lacking is a policy framework for dealing with Iran before, after,
and, indeed, during its crossing of the nuclear threshold. This
monograph attempts to fill that gap by providing a midterm strategy
for dealing with Iran that neither begins nor ends at the point at
which Tehran acquires a nuclear weapon capability. It proposes an
approach that neither acquiesces to a nuclear-armed Iran nor
refuses to admit the possibility - indeed, the likelihood - of this
occurring.
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