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This book offers a rigorous comparative historical analysis of
Kenya, Tanzania, Bolivia, Peru, and the United States to
demonstrate how colonial administrative rule, access to resources,
nation building and language policies, as well as political
entrepreneurs contribute to the politicization of ethnicity.
This authored monograph presents the use of dynamic spatiotemporal
modeling tools for the identification of complex underlying
processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous
escalation, and volatility. The authors use ideas from statistics,
signal processing, and ecology, and provide a predictive framework
which is able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on
the predictions. The book also demonstrates the methods on the
WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary, the results showing that this approach
allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a
strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed
opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from
preceding years. The target audience primarily comprises
researchers and practitioners in the involved fields but the book
may also be beneficial for graduate students.
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