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The EU's fiscal framework needs reform. While existing fiscal rules
have had some impact in constraining deficits, they did not prevent
deficits and debt ratios that have threatened the stability of the
monetary union in the past and that continue to create
vulnerabilities today. The framework also has a poor track record
at managing trade-offs between containing fiscal risks and
stabilizing output. Finally, the framework does not provide
sufficient tools for EU-wide stabilization. This was most visible
during the decade following the euro area sovereign debt crisis,
when structurally low real interest rates stretched the policy
tools of the European Central Bank (ECB), leading to a persistent
undershooting of its inflation target. This paper proposes a new
framework based on risk-based EU-level fiscal rules, strengthened
national institutions, and a central fiscal capacity. First,
risk-based EU-level fiscal rules would link the speed and ambition
of fiscal consolidation to the level and horizon of fiscal risks,
as identified by debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using a common
methodology developed by a new and independent European Fiscal
Council (EFC). The 3 percent deficit and 60 percent debt reference
values would remain. Second, all member countries would be required
to enact medium-term fiscal frameworks consistent with the EU-level
rules—that is, to ensure convergence over the medium-term to an
overall fiscal balance anchor by setting expenditure ceilings.
Independent national fiscal councils (NFCs) would have a much
stronger role to strengthen checks and balances at the national
level (including undertaking or endorsing macroeconomic projections
and performing DSAs to assess fiscal risks). The European
Commission (EC) would continue to play its key surveil¬lance role
as articulated in the Maastricht Treaty and the EFC would be the
center of a peer network of fiscal councils. Third, building on the
recent experience with the NextGenerationEU (NGEU), an EU fiscal
capacity (FCEU) would improve euro area macroeconomic stabilization
and allow the provision of common EU public goods—a task that has
become more urgent given the green transition and common security
concerns. Central to the proposal is a mutually reinforcing
relationship between EU rules and national-level imple¬mentation.
Strengthening implementation requires both better national
ownership of the rules and their application and greater congruence
of national-level frameworks with EU-level rules. The former can
only be achieved by rules that convincingly balance the needs of
members with the avoidance of negative externali¬ties across
members. This argues for a risk-based approach—the first pillar
of our proposal. The latter requires a stronger role for
significantly upgraded national level frameworks—the second
pillar of our proposal.
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