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The withdrawal of most international troops by 2014 will have a
profound and lasting impact on the country's economic and
development fabric. This book explores some of these ramifications.
Development progress since 2001 has been mixed. The country has
recorded some major achievements such as rapid economic growth,
relatively low inflation, better public financial management, and
gains in basic health and education. Key social indicators,
including life expectancy and maternal mortality, have improved
markedly, and women are participating more in the economy. Yet in
other respects, particularly governance and institution building,
the country has fared less well, and many indicators have worsened
in recent years. Afghanistan remains one of the world's least
developed countries, with a per capita gross domestic product (GDP)
of only $528. More than a third of the population live below the
poverty line, more than half are vulnerable and at serious risk of
falling into poverty, and three-quarters are illiterate.
Additionally, political uncertainty and insecurity could undermine
Afghanistan's transition and development prospects. The large aid
inflows that have benefited Afghanistan have also brought problems.
Aid has underpinned much of the progress since 2001-including that
in key services, infrastructure, and government administration-but
it has also been linked to corruption, poor aid effectiveness, and
weakened governance. Aid is estimated to be $15.7 billion-about the
same as the size of the GDP in fiscal year 2011. Despite the large
volume of aid, most international spending 'on' Afghanistan is not
spent 'in' Afghanistan, as it leaves the economy through imports,
expatriated profits of contractors, and outward remittances. Other
countries' experience shows that the impact of large aid reductions
on economic growth may be less than expected. The main issue for
the future is how to manage this change, mitigate impacts, and put
aid and spending on a more sustainable path. This book is intended
for a wide audience interested in the relationship between
conflict, aid and development and how international responses to
post-conflict state building and reconstruction may both help and
hinder a countries transition out of conflict towards a more stable
future.
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