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This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and
future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use
climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of
the Earth's climate, climate-system simulation models are
necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The
book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides
readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and
offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are
constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence
we should place in them. It presents current results and the key
uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but
understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any
model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model
output has been used and how it might be used in the future are
provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better
understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models
among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.
This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and
future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use
climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of
the Earth's climate, climate-system simulation models are
necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The
book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides
readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and
offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are
constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence
we should place in them. It presents current results and the key
uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but
understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any
model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model
output has been used and how it might be used in the future are
provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better
understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models
among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.
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