Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result in “the ultimate guide to thinking about risk” (Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit).

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

The ultimate guide to becoming an expert player of no limit hold’em poker from one of the game’s “premier players” (Erik Seidel, World Series of Poker winner) Phil Gordon. Poker is hotter than ever, with tens of millions of fans dealing in, logging on, and tuning in to global tournaments. And the most popular version of poker is no limit hold’em, long considered the purest form of the game, with appearances in the World Series of Poker, the World Poker Tour, and on Bravo’s Celebrity Poker Showdown. Now, Phil Gordon, acclaimed professional player and cohost of Celebrity Poker Showdown, shares his seasoned expertise and valuable insight in Phil Gordon’s Little Green Book. Featuring a conversational approach and easy-to-digest explanations and diagrams, this is the must-have guide for anyone who wants to go all-in on becoming a better no limit hold’em player.

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

'Brilliant and entertaining' Daniel Kahneman | 'Quit what you are doing right now and read this' Richard Thaler | 'Engrossing, important, and grounded in science' Katy Milkman What if the secret to success is not just hard work, but knowing when to change track? In this game-changing guide, decision-making expert Annie Duke shows why quitting what holds you back is essential for success. Drawing on new research and fascinating examples, this book offers practical strategies and explains: Why it's so hard to walk away How to identify when it's best to persevere or pivot How quitting on time often feels like quitting too early Packed with insights from athletes, start-up founders and entertainers, Quit breaks down the mental model that keeps us from walking away and provides a toolkit for quitting anything - a career, a marriage, an investment - at the perfect time.