Bringing together a collection of previously published work, this book provides a discussion of major considerations relating to the construction of econometric models that work well to explain economic phenomena, predict future outcomes and be useful for policy-making. Analytical relations between dynamic econometric structural models and empirical time series MVARMA, VAR, transfer function, and univariate ARIMA models are established with important application for model-checking and model construction. The theory and applications of these procedures to a variety of econometric modeling and forecasting problems as well as Bayesian and non-Bayesian testing, shrinkage estimation and forecasting procedures are also presented and applied. Finally, attention is focused on the effects of disaggregation on forecasting precision and the Marshallian Macroeconomic Model that features demand, supply and entry equations for major sectors of economies is analysed and described. This volume will prove invaluable to professionals, academics and students alike.

The idea that simplicity matters in science is as old as science itself, with the much cited example of Ockham's Razor, 'entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem': entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity. A problem with Ockham's razor is that nearly everybody seems to accept it, but few are able to define its exact meaning and to make it operational in a non-arbitrary way. Using a multidisciplinary perspective including philosophers, mathematicians, econometricians and economists, this 2002 monograph examines simplicity by asking six questions: what is meant by simplicity? How is simplicity measured? Is there an optimum trade-off between simplicity and goodness-of-fit? What is the relation between simplicity and empirical modelling? What is the relation between simplicity and prediction? What is the connection between simplicity and convenience? The book concludes with reflections on simplicity by Nobel Laureates in Economics.

Modelling and Prediction Honoring Seymour Geisser contains the refereed proceedings of the Conference on Forecasting, Prediction, and Modelling held at National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan in 1994. The papers discuss general methodological issues; prediction; design of experiments and classification; prior distributions and estimation; posterior odds, testing, and model selection; modelling and prediction in finance; and time series modelling and applications. Specific topics include very interesting and topical statistical issues related to DNA fingerprinting and spatial image reconstruction, foundational issues for applied statistics and testing hypotheses, forecasting tax revenues and bond prices, and assessing oxone depletion.

This book is based on two Sir Richard Stone lectures at the Bank of England and the National Institute for Economic and Social Research. Largely non-technical, the first part of the book covers some of the broader issues involved in Stone's and others' work in statistics. It explores the more philosophical issues attached to statistics, econometrics and forecasting and describes the paradigm shift back to the Bayesian approach to scientific inference. The first part concludes with simple examples from the different worlds of educational management and golf clubs. The second, more technical part covers in detail the structural econometric time series analysis (SEMTSA) approach to statistical and econometric modeling.

The idea that simplicity matters in science is as old as science itself, with the much cited example of Ockham's Razor. A problem with Ockham's Razor is that nearly everybody seems to accept it, but few are able to define its exact meaning and to make it operational in a non-arbitrary way. Using a multidisciplinary perspective including philosophers, mathematicians, econometricians and economists, this monograph examines simplicity by asking six questions: What is meant by simplicity? How is simplicity measured? Is there an optimum trade-off between simplicity and goodness-of-fit? What is the relation between simplicity and empirical modelling? What is the relation between simplicity and prediction? What is the connection between simplicity and convenience?

This book assembles key texts in the theory and applications of the Structural Econometric Time Series Analysis (SEMTSA) approach. The theory and applications of these procedures to a variety of econometric modeling and forecasting problems as well as Bayesian and non-Bayesian testing, shrinkage estimation and forecasting procedures are presented and applied. Finally, attention is focused on the effects of disaggregation on forecasting precision.

This book is based on two Sir Richard Stone lectures at the Bank of England and the National Institute for Economic and Social Research. Largely non-technical, the first part of the book covers some of the broader issues involved in Stone's and others' work in statistics. It explores the more philosophical issues attached to statistics, econometrics and forecasting and describes the paradigm shift back to the Bayesian approach to scientific inference. The first part concludes with simple examples from the different worlds of educational management and golf clubs. The second, more technical part covers in detail the structural econometric time series analysis (SEMTSA) approach to statistical and econometric modeling.