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DYNAMIC ECONOMICS with increasing returns is extended to cope with
economic growth, the business cycles and the irregular swings in
the long-term development as different aspects of the same
dynamical system, the economic system "as a whole." HUMAN CAPITAL
emerges as the seminal concept: economic growth is in this dynamics
causally reduced to the growth of human capital and thus to the
growth of exact scientific knowledge. An analysis of this knowledge
shows that quality education in hard sciences must be a prime
target of future economic policies. A CAUSAL STRUCTURE, new in
economics, underlies the extended dynamics. To enable students to
study and to improve it, a detailled introduction to nonlinear
causality is given, emphasizing the points relevant to this causal
structure. NATIONAL ACCOUNTING and input-output dynamics are
suggested to be extended to include also the production prices and
production of human capital and of human time, by using a method of
calculation indicated in detail in the book.
Dealing with factors affecting economic growth in knowledge-based
societies, the author shows that the interaction between material
and nonmaterial values is the ultimate source of all economic
growth. The model thus developed predicts the quantitative facts
concerning business cycles better than the conventional real-cycle
models, while also producing a new growth path whose existence is
verified by empirical facts. The results provide strong evidence of
the economic relevance of nonmaterial values, and also prompt a new
view of the stochastic elements in the business cycles.
The author shows that the enormous gap between theory and facts in
modern macroeconomics can only be eliminated by nonlinear
macroeconomic dynamics with the following special characteristics:
First of all, only certain group-theoretical invariants generate
the correct growth cycles with irregularly varying lengths, not any
stochastic process as usually applied for this purpose.
Furthermore, a special extended value function and generalized
human capital are needed for a correct representation of scientific
and technological innovation. Finally, the correct nonlinear
macroeconomic dynamics are not reducible to microeconomics, for
both of the above mentioned reasons.
A critical examination of The prevailing orthodoxy according to
which all macroeconomic theory should be reducible to
microeconomics. The book provides a mathematical extension of the
Lucas theory to allow for the effects of creation of knowledge upon
economic development so as to improve the prediction of business
cycle data.
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