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Despite rising real incomes, the number of uninsured American
workers and their dependents has not fallen appreciably.
Policymakers in both political parties have considered the use of
tax credits to encourage the purchase of private insurance
coverage. This study analyzes the effects of a variety of forms of
tax credits, especially for workers whose incomes place them above
the poverty line but below the median family income -- a group in
which the vast majority of the uninsured are to be found. The
authors' conclusions differ from more conventional analyses in two
ways. First, they find plausible effects on the numbers of
uninsured persons that are larger than those of other studies.
Second, they explore the distinction between the "cost" to the
federal government of tax credits and the more relevant measures of
tax credits' effects on aggregate economic welfare and cost to the
economy. Nevertheless, they still find, as do most other analysts,
that modest subvsidies will have little effect in reducing the
number of the uninsured. For a given amount "spent" on credits, a
key tradeoff exists between the breadth of the reduction in the
uninsured and the depth of the increase in the coverage they take.
While it is unlikely that the number of uninsured will ever be
literally zero, the authors believe that carefully designed tax
credits can both reduce the numbers of uninsured and improve the
equity of tax treatment of the insured.
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