Modern plate tectonic theory, the development of earthquake prediction and the mitigation of earthquake hazards are based on the study of earthquakes during the twentieth century. Investigation of earthquakes over a much longer period, although in no way invalidating the global importance of plate tectonics, shows that patterns of seismic activity do change with time and that areas of intense seismic activity in the historical past are often gaps of earthquake activity today. This study of the historical seismicity of Iran over the last thirteen centuries not only shows this quite clearly but also reveals a long-term tectonic pattern which is different from that deduced from short-term observations. The historical data provides the basis for the development of earthquake prediction models and for long-term earthquake hazard assessment. This book will be of equal interest to earth scientists, seismologists, historical geographers and orientalists.

A careful and intensive study of historical sources and a review of the instrumental data of this century have led to this detailed catalogue of earthquakes. Egypt, Arabia, the Red Sea region and the surrounding areas of Libya, Sudan and Ethiopia are studied from the earliest times to the present day. Each earthquake is described as fully as possible from the available data, and is analysed in a geographical and historical context. The completeness of the earthquake catalogue over time is analysed and the range of sources and problems associated with the scrutiny of historical sources is discussed. The information is then placed in a geophysical framework.