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After leading the world economy for a century, the United States
faces the first real challenge to its supremacy in the rise of
China. Is economic (or broader) conflict, well beyond the trade and
technology war that has already erupted, inevitable between the
world's two superpowers? Will their clash produce a new economic
leadership vacuum akin to the 1930s, when Great Britain was unable
to play its traditional leadership role and a rising United States
was unwilling to step in to save the global order? In this sweeping
and authoritative analysis of the competition for global economic
leadership between China and the United States, C. Fred Bergsten
warns of the disastrous consequences of hostile confrontation
between these two superpowers. He paints a frightening picture of a
world economy adopting Chinese characteristics, in which the United
States, after Trump abdicated much of its role, engages in a
self-defeating attempt to "decouple" from its rival. Drawing on
more than 50 years of active participation as a policymaker and
close observation as a scholar, Bergsten calls on China to exercise
constructive global leadership in its own self-interest and on the
United States to reject a policy of containment, avoid a new Cold
War, and instead pursue "conditional competitive cooperation" to
work with its allies, and especially China, to lead, rather than
destroy, the world economy.
An examination of the role of the dollar in the global financial
system which presents a long-term historical perspective on the
international monetary system in this century. The main focus is on
the evaluation of the global financial system in the post-war
period.
China has emerged as an economic powerhouse (projected to have the
largest economy in the world in a little over a decade) and is
taking an ever-increasing role on the world stage. China's Rise:
Challenges and Opportunities will help the United States and the
rest of the world better comprehend the facts and dynamics
underpinning China's rise-an understanding that becomes more and
more important with each passing day. Additionally, the authors
suggest actions both China and the United States can take that will
not only maximize the opportunities for China's constructive
integration into the international community but also help form a
domestic consensus that will provide a stable foundation for such
policies. Filled with facts for policymakers, this much anticipated
book's narrative-driven, accessible style will appeal to the
general reader. This book is unique in that it analyzes the
authoritative data on China's economy, foreign and domestic policy,
and national security. The expert judgments in this book paint a
picture of a China confronting domestic challenges that are in many
ways side effects of its economic successes, while simultaneously
trying to take advantage of the foreign policy benefits of those
same successes.China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities from The
China Balance Sheet Project, a joint, multiyear project of the
Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Peterson
Institute, discusses China's military modernization, China's
increasing soft power influence in Asia and around the world,
China's policy toward Taiwan, domestic political development,
Beijing's political relations with China's provincial and municipal
authorities, corruption and social unrest, rebalancing China's
economic growth, the exchange rate controversy, energy and the
environment, industrial policy, trade disputes, and investment
issues. This book is part of the CSIS-IIE China Balance Sheet
project. For more information about this project, please visit
www.chinabalancesheet.org.
Building on the highly successful 2003 volume, Dollar Overvaluation
and the World Economy, this book assesses the progress that has
been made to date in correcting the sizable misalignments of key
national currencies that developed in the late 1990s and early
2000s. The new volume examines how much dollar decline is needed
for the United States to achieve a sustainable current account
position and what the impact of a major dollar realignment would be
on other economies around the world. It stresses the need for China
and other Asian countries to participate actively in this
adjustment process and also features new ideas on the effectiveness
of intervention in moving exchange rates in a desired direction.
Dollar Adjustment brings together perspectives from government,
industry, and academia in several of the key countries..
What are the key foreign economic policy issues facing the United
States in the second half of this decade? How can the
administration and Congress meet the economic challenges that lie
ahead? This new book analyzes the dramatic importance of the world
economy to both the domestic prosperity and overall foreign policy
of the United States, describes the new global environment (e.g.,
the rise of China as a global economic superpower and the
completion of European unification) in which US policy must
operate, and proposes major US initiatives on a wide range of
international economic issues, including correction of the huge
current account deficit, new trade negotiations, and energy.
Individual chapters by senior staff of the Institute on each of the
key topics are included.
Over the course of five decades, John Williamson has published an
extraordinary number of books, articles, and other pieces on topics
ranging from international monetary economics to development policy
and bridging scholarly literature and policy debates. This book
provides an overview and insight into Williamson's work. It
includes contributions from the editors, Stanley Fischer, Edwin M.
Truman, Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji, Marcus Miller, Avinash Persaud,
Stephany Griffith-Jones, Dagmar Hertova, Olivier Jeanne, Shankar
Acharya, Jose Antonio Ocampo, and an essay by John Williamson on
designing economic policy.
Conflicts over currency valuations are a recurrent feature of the
modern global economy. To strengthen their international
competitiveness, many countries resort to buying foreign currencies
to make their exports cheaper and their imports more expensive. In
the first decade of the 21st century, for example, China's currency
manipulation practices were so flagrant that they produced a
backlash in the United States and other trading partners, prompting
threats of retaliation. How damaging is the practice of currency
manipulation-and how extensive is the problem? This book by C. Fred
Bergsten and Joseph E. Gagnon-two leading experts on trade,
investment, and the effects of currency manipulation-traces the
history, causes, and effects of currency manipulation and analyzes
a range of policy responses that the United States could adopt. The
book is an indispensable guide to a complex and serious problem and
what might be done to solve it.
This Special Report looks at the long-run prospects for the
international economic position of the United States, with
particular focus on the likely evolution of the current account
deficit and prospective foreign financing for it. Its goal is to
provide a fundamental framework for the development of US fiscal
and other economic policies, especially including responses to the
global financial and economic crisis of 2008-09. The central
message is that the long-run outlook is extremely worrisome and
potentially very costly-in foreign policy/national security as well
as economic terms. As the country (and the world) emerges from the
global crisis, and even in fashioning policy responses to the
crisis itself, it will be essential to keep the long-run
considerations firmly in mind. This will require early and decisive
policy actions, perhaps even in tandem with the near-term stimulus
and housing initiatives, to address the ever-escalating costs of
the major entitlement programs, Social Security and especially
Medicare/Medicaid, and thus the country's overall fiscal position.
In September 1985, emissaries of the world's five leading
industrial nations-the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and
Japan-secretly gathered at the Plaza Hotel in New York City and
unveiled an unprecedented effort to correct the largest set of
current account and exchange rate imbalances that had ever
threatened the world economy. The Plaza Accord is credited with
sharply realigning exchange rates, significantly reducing current
account imbalances, and countering protectionist pressures in the
United States. But did the Accord provide a foundation for ongoing
international financial stability and policy coordination? Or was
it simply a unique one-time coincidence of national interests?The
Plaza experience continues to inform today's debates about the
limits and possibilities of international monetary cooperation. In
late 2015, leading policymakers and economists-including those who
were involved in the Accord's design, negotiation, and
implementation-held a Plaza Retrospective conference at the Baker
Institute for Public Policy to evaluate the Accord's legacy and how
its collaborative spirit can be applied today. This volume presents
their views and analyses to provide guidance for a time when the
world again faces the prospect of currency disequilibria, growing
imbalances, trade policy reactions, and thus uncertainty for both
the global economy and world politics.Data disclosure: The data
underlying the analysis in this volume are available. The data used
in chapter 14 are taken directly from William Cline's Policy Briefs
15-8 and 15-20, with the exception that they have been manipulated
with a key assumption stated in the chapter.
The dollar rose by about 35 percent in real terms from 1995 through
the end of 2001, supporting the booming US economy of the late
1990s but pushing the current account deficit to a record high of
almost 5 percent of GDP. This special report provides alternative
views of how large a dollar depreciation would be needed to restore
a sustainable position (Jim O'Neill, Michael Rosenberg, and
Catherine Mann), analyzes the impact of currency misalignments on
each of the three major economies (Martin Baily for the United
States, William Cline for Japan, and Daniel Gros for Euroland), and
discusses the role of exchange market intervention in addressing
the issues (Kathryn Dominguez, Edwin M. Truman, and Ernest Preeg).
Koreans living in the United States have generated an increase of
about 15 to 20 percent in trade between the United States and
Korea. This is one of the surprising conclusions reached in this
special report, which, upon the 100th anniversary of the migration
of Koreans from their homeland, looks at the impact of the 6 to 7
million people who make up this diaspora on both South Korean and
overseas economies. No country in history has ever succeeded in
building a developed and high-income economy without participating
in the global economy; globalization is imperative for economic
success. And one of the largest elements of globalization, in
addition to international trade and investment, is migration. In
The Korean Diaspora in the World Economy, experts hold up South
Korea as one of the most dramatic examples of that experience,
having gone from being a poor, underdeveloped country fewer than 40
years ago to becoming a postwar economic success story. This report
also looks at South Korea's role as a regional trading partner and
its present and future relations with North Korea.
For more than three decades, the United States has conducted a
unique Japan-specific economic policy. This policy was motivated by
Japan's economic size and dynamism, fears that a unique "Japanese
model of capitalism" enabled it to compete unfairly and threaten
American prosperity during a period of prolonged US economic
difficulties, and that the United States had unique capabilities to
induce policy change in Japan due to its provision of security
guarantees. No More Bashing argues that these assessments are
mistaken and that the United States should abandon its
Japan-specific policy. Japan's declining relative importance in the
world economy, the waning distinctiveness of its economic
institutions, the failure of most recent US initiatives toward
Japan, and the emergence of strengthened international institutions
such as the World Trade Organization, all underscore the
advisability of formulating new approaches to bilateral relations
rooted more firmly in multilateral institutions. This volume
analyzes the outlook for the Japanese and US economies; their trade
and financial relationships, including their trade negotiations
over the past decade; the implications of new regional
developments, most notably the rise of China and proposals for East
Asian economic cooperation; and the roles of the United States and
Japan in the provision of international public goods such as
development assistance, environmental protection, and international
security. It emphasizes that their trade agenda is increasingly
moving beyond traditional border impediments toward the more
politically sensitive issues of internal regulation and
deregulation, such as competition policy. The authors propose a
series of new initiatives to address these challenges and
strengthen the multilateral system.
The terrain of the world trading system is shifting as countries in
Asia, Europe, and North America negotiate new trade agreements.
However, none of these talks include both China and the United
States, the two biggest economies in the world. In this
pathbreaking study, C. Fred Bergsten, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, and Sean
Miner argue that China and the United States would benefit
substantially from a bilateral free trade and investment accord or
from participating together in a regional agreement like the TPP.
In the process, they contend, each country would also achieve
progress in addressing its internal economic challenges, such as
the low saving rate in the United States. Achieving greater trade
and investment integration could be accomplished with one
comprehensive effort or through step-by-step negotiations over key
issues. The authors call on the United States to seek
liberalization of China's services sector as vital to securing an
agreement, and they explain that such contentious matters as
cyberespionage and currency manipulation be handled through
parallel negotiations rather than in the agreement itself. This is
an important study of the benefits and difficulties of a complex
matter that could yield dividends to the two economies and help
stabilize the security and well-being of the rest of the world.
This volume contains the papers presented and comments made at two
conferences on the controversial subject of greater flexibility of
exchange rates. The first of the conferences was held at Oyster
Bay, New York, early in 1969, the second at Burgenstock,
Switzerland, in the summer of 1969. One half of the 40 conferees
were academic economists, the others were practitioners of the
foreign exchange markets, mostly bankers and a few executives of
international business firms. Both the opposition to greater
flexibility of exchange rates and the advocacy of more flexible
systems are represented in these papers. The contrast between fixed
or jumping exchange rates and gliding exchange rates is clearly
described and the various systems of increased flexibility, such as
the "wider band" and the "crawling peg," are explained and
examined. Originally published in 1970. The Princeton Legacy
Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make
available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished
backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the
original texts of these important books while presenting them in
durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton
Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly
heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton
University Press since its founding in 1905.
This volume contains the papers presented and comments made at two
conferences on the controversial subject of greater flexibility of
exchange rates. The first of the conferences was held at Oyster
Bay, New York, early in 1969, the second at Burgenstock,
Switzerland, in the summer of 1969. One half of the 40 conferees
were academic economists, the others were practitioners of the
foreign exchange markets, mostly bankers and a few executives of
international business firms. Both the opposition to greater
flexibility of exchange rates and the advocacy of more flexible
systems are represented in these papers. The contrast between fixed
or jumping exchange rates and gliding exchange rates is clearly
described and the various systems of increased flexibility, such as
the "wider band" and the "crawling peg," are explained and
examined. Originally published in 1970. The Princeton Legacy
Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make
available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished
backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the
original texts of these important books while presenting them in
durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton
Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly
heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton
University Press since its founding in 1905.
The decline of the dollar, the Mexican crisis, and sluggish global
growth reveal the failure of the Group of Seven industrial nations
to provide effective management of the world economy. The G-7 once
played this crucial role effectively, and must do so again if
future crises are to be averted and global prosperity to be
promoted. This study assesses the G-7's record and the reasons for
its demise. It outlines an action program that includes reforming
the exchange rate regime, creating a new financial facility at the
IMF to deal with crises sparked by private capital flows, and
instituting an early warning system to prevent serious new
disruptions in the world economy
China has emerged as an economic powerhouse (projected to have the
largest economy in the world in a little over a decade) and is
taking an ever-increasing role on the world stage. China's Rise:
Challenges and Opportunities will help the United States and the
rest of the world better comprehend the facts and dynamics
underpinning China's rise-an understanding that becomes more and
more important with each passing day. Additionally, the authors
suggest actions both China and the United States can take that will
not only maximize the opportunities for China's constructive
integration into the international community but also help form a
domestic consensus that will provide a stable foundation for such
policies. Filled with facts for policymakers, this much anticipated
book's narrative-driven, accessible style will appeal to the
general reader. This book is unique in that it analyzes the
authoritative data on China's economy, foreign and domestic policy,
and national security. The expert judgments in this book paint a
picture of a China confronting domestic challenges that are in many
ways side effects of its economic successes, while simultaneously
trying to take advantage of the foreign policy benefits of those
same successes.China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities from The
China Balance Sheet Project, a joint, multiyear project of the
Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Peterson
Institute, discusses China's military modernization, China's
increasing soft power influence in Asia and around the world,
China's policy toward Taiwan, domestic political development,
Beijing's political relations with China's provincial and municipal
authorities, corruption and social unrest, rebalancing China's
economic growth, the exchange rate controversy, energy and the
environment, industrial policy, trade disputes, and investment
issues. This book is part of the CSIS-IIE China Balance Sheet
project. For more information about this project, please visit
www.chinabalancesheet.org.
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