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This is a reproduction of a book published before 1923. This book
may have occasional imperfections such as missing or blurred pages,
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++++ The below data was compiled from various identification fields
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++++ Les Statuts Et Privileges Des Universites Francaises Depuis
Leur Fondation Jusqu'en 1789: Ouvrage Publie Sous Les Auspices Du
Ministere De L'instruction Publique Et Du Conseil General Des
Facultes De Caen; Les Statuts Et Privileges Des Universites
Francaises Depuis Leur Fondation Jusqu'en 1789: Ouvrage Publie Sous
Les Auspices Du Ministere De L'instruction Publique Et Du Conseil
General Des Facultes De Caen; Marcel Fournier; Volume 4 Of Les
Statuts Et Privileges Des Universites Francaises Depuis Leur
Fondation Jusqu'en 1789; Charles Engel Marcel Fournier, Charles
Engel, France. Ministere de l'education nationale, Universite de
Caen. Conseil general des facultes L. Larose et Forcel, 1894
Education; Higher; Education / Higher; Educational law and
legislation; Law / Educational Law & Legislation; Universities
and colleges
Survey data show that the expected growth rates of consumption
across countries vary widely and are not highly correlated. This
data contradicts the simplest of open-economy models in which there
is a freely traded non- state-contingent bond and purchasing power
parity holds. We explore two alternative explanations for the
finding: that households in each country in effect face different
ex ante real interest rates or that there are significant credit
constraints, so that expected consumption growth rates are driven
largely by expected income growth. The empirical evidence strongly
supports the latter hypothesis. These findings challenge the
modeling of consumption that is at the heart of many, if not most,
macroeconomic models.
We investigate the possibility that the large current account
deficits of the U.S. are the outcome of optimizing behavior. We
develop a simple long-run world equilibrium model in which the
current account is determined by the expected discounted present
value of its future share of world GDP relative to its current
share of world GDP. The model suggests that under some reasonable
assumptions about future U.S. GDP growth relative to the rest of
the advanced countries -- more modest than the growth over the past
20 years -- the current account deficit is near optimal levels. We
then explore the implications for the real exchange rate. Under
some plausible assumptions, the model implies little change in the
real exchange rate over the adjustment path, though the conclusion
is sensitive to assumptions about tastes and technology. Then we
turn to empirical evidence. A test of current account
sustainability suggests that the U.S. is not keeping on a long-run
sustainable path. A direct test of our model finds that the
dynamics of the U.S. current account -- the increasing deficits
over the past decade -- are difficult to explain under a particular
statistical model (Markov-switching) of expectations of future U.S.
growth. But, if we use survey data on forecasted GDP growth in the
G7, our very simple model appears to explain the evolution of the
U.S. current account remarkably well. We conclude that expectations
of robust performance of the U.S. economy relative to the rest of
the advanced countries is a contender -- though not the only
legitimate contender -- for explaining the U.S. current account
deficit.
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