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Intelligence Analysis - Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations (Paperback)
National Research Council, Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education; Edited by Baruch Fischhoff, …
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The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise
whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their
work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these
people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify,
synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's
security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained,
motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able
to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities.
Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for
the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual
and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic
processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed
evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report,
Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral
and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure,
missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the
following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three
areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by
the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the
latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone
resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection
allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods,
analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a
category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective
of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at
the heart of intelligence analysis.
Today's world of rapid social, technological, and behavioral change
provides new opportunities for communications with few limitations
of time and space. Through these communications, people leave
behind an ever-growing collection of traces of their daily
activities, including digital footprints provided by text, voice,
and other modes of communication. Meanwhile, new techniques for
aggregating and evaluating diverse and multimodal information
sources are available to security services that must reliably
identify communications indicating a high likelihood of future
violence.
In the context of this changed and changing world of communications
and behavior, the Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory
Sciences of the National Research Council presents this volume of
three papers as one portion of the vast subject of threatening
communications and behavior. The papers review the behavioral and
social sciences research on the likelihood that someone who engages
in abnormal and/or threatening communications will actually then
try to do harm. The focus is on how the scientific knowledge can
inform and advance future research on threat assessments, in part
by considering the approaches and techniques used to analyze
communications and behavior in the dynamic context of today's
world.
The papers in the collection were written within the context of
protecting high-profile public figures from potential attach or
harm. The research, however, is broadly applicable to U.S. national
security including potential applications for analysis of
communications from leaders of hostile nations and public threats
from terrorist groups. This work highlights the complex psychology
of threatening communications and behavior, and it offers knowledge
and perspectives from multiple domains that contribute to a deeper
understanding of the value of communications in predicting and
preventing violent behaviors.
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