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The state of the economy is particularly uncertain at the moment.
The pace of economic growth slowed in 2007, and there are strong
indications that it will slacken further in 2008. In CBO's view,
the ongoing problems in the housing and financial markets and the
high price of oil will curb spending by households and businesses
this year and trim the growth of GDP. Although recent data suggest
that the probability of a recession in 2008 has increased, CBO does
not expect the slowdown in economic growth to be large enough to
register as a recession. Economic performance worse than that
suggested in CBO's forecast could significantly decrease projected
revenues and increase projected spending. Furthermore, policy
changes intended to mitigate the economic slowdown would, by
design, tend to increase the budget deficit in the short term. CBO
expects the economy to rebound after 2008, as the negative effects
of the turmoil in the housing and financial markets fade. Under the
assumptions that govern CBO's baseline, the budget deficit will
amount to 1.5 percent of GDP or less each year from 2009 to 2011.
Subsequently, the budget will show a small surplus of 0.5 percent
of GDP in 2012 and remain near that level each year through 2018
(the end of the current 10-year projection period). CBO's baseline
budget projections for the next 10 years are not a forecast of
future outcomes; rather, they are based on the assumption that
current laws and policies remain the same. The projections stem
from longstanding procedures that were, until recently, specified
in law, and they serve as a benchmark that lawmakers and others can
use to assess the potential impact of future policy decisions.
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