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When a doctor tells you there's a one percent chance that an
operation will result in your death, or a scientist claims that his
theory is probably true, what exactly does that mean? Understanding
probability is clearly very important, if we are to make good
theoretical and practical choices. In this engaging and highly
accessible introduction to the philosophy of probability, Darrell
Rowbottom takes the reader on a journey through all the major
interpretations of probability, with reference to real-world
situations. In lucid prose, he explores the many fallacies of
probabilistic reasoning, such as the 'gambler's fallacy' and the
'inverse fallacy', and shows how we can avoid falling into these
traps by using the interpretations presented. He also illustrates
the relevance of the interpretation of probability across
disciplinary boundaries, by examining which interpretations of
probability are appropriate in diverse areas such as quantum
mechanics, game theory, and genetics. Using entertaining dialogues
to draw out the key issues at stake, this unique book will appeal
to students and scholars across philosophy, the social sciences,
and the natural sciences.
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