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The book is a collection of essays on various issues in philosophy
of science, with special emphasis on the foundations of probability
and statistics, and quantum mechanics. The main topics, addressed
by some of the most outstanding researchers in the field, are
subjective probability, Bayesian statistics, probability
kinematics, causal decision making, probability and realism in
quantum mechanics.
The present volume contains the proceedings of the conference on
"Prob- ability, dynamics and causality" that took place in Luino on
June 15-17, 1995. This was the third conference on topics related
to the foundations of probability and statistics held in Luino,
following that on "Probability, statistics and inductive logic"
(1981) and that on "Statistics in science" (1988). 1 Like the
previous ones, the conference brought together people working on
the foundations of probability and statistics, as well as their
applica- tion to science. The meeting opened with a session on
"Exchangeability" including the papers by Persi Diaconis and Susan
Holmes, Eugenio Regaz- zini and Attilio Wedlin, followed by one on
"Sufficiency, frequentism and analogy", including the papers by
Colin Howson, Alan Hajek and Roberto Festa. The second day of the
meeting was in honour of Dick Jeffrey, on the occasion of his
forthcoming 70th birthday (August 5, 1996). Dick also took part in
the previous meetings and, to use a term dear to him, we consider
him the guru of the Luino conferences. The papers by Maria Car- la
Ga1avotti, Sandy Zabell, Brian Skyrms, Cristina Bicchieri and
Richard Jeffrey himself all belong to this section of the
conference. The third day included two sessions, devoted to
"Probability and quantum mechanics" and "Probability in physical
science". Abner Shimony, Giancarlo Ghirar- di, Francesco De
Martini, Nino Zanghi, Domenico Costantini and Ubaldo Garibaldi gave
talks in these sessions.
An inference may be defined as a passage of thought according to
some method. In the theory of knowledge it is customary to
distinguish deductive and non-deductive inferences. Deductive
inferences are truth preserving, that is, the truth of the premises
is preserved in the con clusion. As a result, the conclusion of a
deductive inference is already 'contained' in the premises,
although we may not know this fact until the inference is
performed. Standard examples of deductive inferences are taken from
logic and mathematics. Non-deductive inferences need not preserve
truth, that is, 'thought may pass' from true premises to false
conclusions. Such inferences can be expansive, or, ampliative in
the sense that the performances of such inferences actually
increases our putative knowledge. Standard non-deductive inferences
do not really exist, but one may think of elementary inductive
inferences in which conclusions regarding the future are drawn from
knowledge of the past. Since the body of scientific knowledge is
increasing, it is obvious that the method of science must allow
non-deductive as well as deductive inferences. Indeed, the
explosive growth of science in recent times points to a prominent
role for the former. Philosophers of science have long tried to
isolate and study the non-deductive inferences in science. The
inevitability of such inferences one the one hand, juxtaposed with
the poverty of all efforts to identify them, constitutes one of the
major cognitive embarrassments of our time."
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