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Forecasting the weather for the long and medium range is a
difficult and scientifically challenging problem. Since the first
operational weather prediction by numerical methods was carried out
(on the BESK computer in Stockholm, Sweden, 1954) . there has been
an ever accelerating development in computer technology. Hand in
hand has followed a tremendous increase in the complexity of the
atmospheric models used for weather prediction. The ability of
these models to predict future states of the atmosphere has also
increased rapidly, both due to model development and due to more
accurate and plentiful observations of the atmosphere to define the
initial . state for model integrations. It may however be argued on
theoretical grounds that even if we have an almost perfect model
with almost perfect initial data, we will never be able to make an
accurate weather prediction more than a few weeks ahead. This is
due to the inherent instability of the atmosphere and work in this
field was pioneered by E. Lorenz. It is generally referred to as
atmospheric predict ability and in the opening chapter of this book
Professor Lorenz gives us an overview of the problem of atmospheric
predictability. The contributions to this book were originally
presented at the 1981 ECMWF Seminar (ECMWF - European Centre for
Medium Range Weather Forecasts) which was held at ECMWF in Reading,
England, in September 1981."
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