The analysis, prediction and interpolation of economic and other time series has a long history and many applications. Major new developments are taking place, driven partly by the need to analyze financial data. The five papers in this book describe those new developments from various viewpoints and are intended to be an introduction accessible to readers from a range of backgrounds. The book arises out of the second Seminaire European de Statistique (SEMSTAT) held in Oxford in December 1994. This brought together young statisticians from across Europe, and a series of introductory lectures were given on topics at the forefront of current research activity. The lectures form the basis for the five papers contained in the book. The papers by Shephard and Johansen deal respectively with time series models for volatility, i.e. variance heterogeneity, and with cointegration. Clements and Hendry analyze the nature of prediction errors. A complementary review paper by Laird gives a biometrical view of the analysis of short time series. Finally Astrup and Nielsen give a mathematical introduction to the study of option pricing. Whilst the book draws its primary motivation from financial series and from multivariate econometric modelling, the applications are potentially much broader.

The analysis prediction and interpolation of economic and other time series has a long history and many applications. Major new developments are taking place, driven partly by the need to analyze financial data. The five papers in this book describe those new developments from various viewpoints and are intended to be an introduction accessible to readers from a range of backgrounds. The book arises out of the second Seminaire European de Statistique (SEMSTAT) held in Oxford in December 1994. This brought together young statisticians from across Europe, and a series of introductory lectures were given on topics at the forefront of current research activity. The lectures form the basis for the five papers contained in the book. The papers by Shephard and Johansen deal respectively with time series models for volatility, i.e. variance heterogeneity, and with cointegration. Clements and Hendry analyze the nature of prediction errors. A complementary review paper by Laird gives a biometrical view of the analysis of short time series. Finally Astrup and Nielsen give a mathematical introduction to the study of option pricing. Whilst the book draws its primary motivation from financial series and from multivariate econometric modelling, the applications are potentially much broader.

A text that stresses the general concepts of the theory of statistics Theoretical Statistics provides a systematic statement of the theory of statistics, emphasizing general concepts rather than mathematical rigor. Chapters 1 through 3 provide an overview of statistics and discuss some of the basic philosophical ideas and problems behind statistical procedures. Chapters 4 and 5 cover hypothesis testing with simple and null hypotheses, respectively. Subsequent chapters discuss non-parametrics, interval estimation, point estimation, asymptotics, Bayesian procedure, and deviation theory. Student familiarity with standard statistical techniques is assumed.

A text that stresses the general concepts of the theory of statistics Theoretical Statistics provides a systematic statement of the theory of statistics, emphasizing general concepts rather than mathematical rigor. Chapters 1 through 3 provide an overview of statistics and discuss some of the basic philosophical ideas and problems behind statistical procedures. Chapters 4 and 5 cover hypothesis testing with simple and null hypotheses, respectively. Subsequent chapters discuss non-parametrics, interval estimation, point estimation, asymptotics, Bayesian procedure, and deviation theory. Student familiarity with standard statistical techniques is assumed.

This book gives a broad and up-to-date coverage of bootstrap methods, with numerous applied examples, developed in a coherent way with the necessary theoretical basis. Applications include stratified data; finite populations; censored and missing data; linear, nonlinear, and smooth regression models; classification; time series and spatial problems. Special features of the book include: extensive discussion of significance tests and confidence intervals; material on various diagnostic methods; and methods for efficient computation, including improved Monte Carlo simulation. Each chapter includes both practical and theoretical exercises. Included with the book is a disk of purpose-written S-Plus programs for implementing the methods described in the text. Computer algorithms are clearly described, and computer code is included on a 3-inch, 1.4M disk for use with IBM computers and compatible machines. Users must have the S-Plus computer application.