The Great Recession of 2009-11 was not simply a severe business cycle slowdown or even a combined credit, housing, and asset market collapse. It left permanent scars, especially on the advanced economies. In its wake, policy makers must navigate uncharted economic territory where 'business as usual' no longer applies and deep structural changes mark the global economic landscape. Fundamental questions about the daunting task of 'regrowing growth' have now taken center stage for economists, politicians, and policy makers alike: Will international capital flows be encouraged or discouraged? How open will export markets be, given the structural changes and their implications for employment? How much reliance will there be on market solutions when governments--now overly indebted and wary of additional relief expenditures--are expected to deliver on the promise of economic growth? Without a resurrection of strong economic growth in major economies, the likelihood of rapid economic development in poor developing countries is dampened. The nature of that ascent is the subject of this volume. In Ascent after Decline, more than a dozen distinguished contributors scan the economic horizon, spell out the new fiscal reality, and highlight the policy choices on which economic regrowth will depend. If the Great Recession has taught one lesson, it is that when fundamental shifts occur, the outcomes will entail new elements that shape future directions and affect policy. How these pressing policy questions are answered will, in large measure, determine the future face of globalization.

"Stuck in the Middle" examines both economic and social public policy initiatives in its assertion that enhancing the welfare of people in developed and developing nations requires an explicit focus on the middle class.

Contents

Foreword

1. Overview: Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and the Middle Class

2. Stylized Facts on the Middle Class and the Development Process

3. The Future of Global Income Inequality

4. The Scope and Limits of Subsidies

5. Policies for Lower Global Wealth Inequality

6. Can Happiness Research Help Fiscal Policy?

7. The Politics of Effective and Sustainable Redistribution

This compilation of case studies and cross-country essays focuses on the role of public policy in the experience of East Asian economies. A major theme running through the volume is regional learning and regional contagion--the spread of that learning. Beginning with the model and experience of Japan and continuing with the impressive achievements of countries originally considered unviable in the 1950s and 1960s, like Korea and Taiwan, contributors demonstrate how regional policy lessons permeated borders easily. The 1980s brought further lessons and flows of capital to the second generation of rapid industrializers. And the 1990s have seen regional contagion benefit new aspirants like Vietnam. As the chapters cumulatively reveal, however, the transferability of lessons depends on the institutional framework in which policy is formulated, the consistency of policy, and the quality of implementation.
Part 1 includes the case studies for the first generation of rapidly developing East Asian economics--the tigers--while Part 2 incorporates the later generation success stories--the cubs--plus the Philippines, a country only now beginning to show significant progress. Part 3 includes cross-country essays on public investment, foreign direct investment, and cross-country patterns that synthesize the lessons learned and propose actions for other development aspirants to pursue.
The essays aim to fill two major gaps--the paucity of country-specific work on the institutional side of development policy and the failure to explain the mixed record of industrial policies in East Asia. The volume will appeal to students, scholars, and policymakers in development economics.
Danny M.Leipziger is Lead Economist, Latin America Region, World Bank.
This title was formally part of the Studies in International Trade Policy Series, now called Studies in International Economics.