UNCOVERED: 1 in 4 EXAM GRADES IS WRONG 'An important contribution to our thinking.’ – Sixth Form Colleges Association 'An uncomfortable but important read.’ – Headmasters’ and Headmistresses’ Conference 'Everyone in UK education should reflect upon the problems identified in this powerful book' – Higher Education Policy Institute Every summer one million GCSE and A-Level candidates receive results that define their school years and set them up for their life. But those results are gravely unreliable. In fact, about one grade in four in England is WRONG. That is 1.5 million grades every year. An A-Level grade B might have been an A, or even a C, had a different examiner marked the script. Similarly, a GCSE grade 7 might have received a grade 8 or a 6. For a decade, young people and their friends and families have been unable to grasp the full extent of this randomness. Now, in this definitive and easy to follow book, Dennis Sherwood explains why so many pupils receive final grades that don’t do them justice. And he suggests ways to regain trust, which apply to essay-based exams throughout the world. Reviews ‘Know an A Level student who you were absolutely sure should nail an A* but ended up with a B? Well, they probably should have got that A* but were a victim of this scandal. Sherwood’s work changed my outlook. Let him change yours too.’ – Robert Campbell, former Chief Executive, Morris Education Trust ‘Dennis has been challenging our thinking about assessment and the awarding of grades for many years, combining detailed research with an engaging manner and clear explanations... this is an important contribution to our thinking.’ – Bill Watkin, Chief Executive, Sixth Form Colleges Association ‘Dennis Sherwood asks the questions about exam grades that no one really wants to answer. His analysis suggests that much of what we think we know about school exams is based at best on wishful thinking and at worst on wilful misrepresentation of statistics. But he also has some positive suggestions for improvement. Missing the Mark is an uncomfortable but important read.’ – Melvyn Roffe, Chair, Headmasters’ and Headmistresses’ Conference ‘Missing a grade can result in university or college applications being rejected. Dennis Sherwood asks the $64,000 question: ‘Are grades reliable enough for the purposes they are supposed to serve?’ This book presents an insightful analysis of this important matter, including the rules introduced in 2016 to reduce the number of appeals, the controversial grading processes in 2020 and 2021 when exams were cancelled, why ‘real’ grades are so unreliable, and some solutions too.’ – Huy Duong, parent ‘Everyone in UK education should reflect upon the problems identified in this powerful book – and then decide what to do about them.’ – Nick Hillman, Director, Higher Education Policy Institute Anyone with an interest in how examinations are assessed, from those in government, regulators, schools, colleges, universities to employers, teachers, parents and students, should read Dennis Sherwood's incisive analysis. His conclusions will have a profound impact on our idea of the accuracy, reliability and fairness of examinations. – Mike Larkin, Emeritus Professor Queen's University of Belfast and Total Equality For Students ‘Dennis provides a clear, step-by-step outline of what is going so terribly wrong and the easy ways to remedy this.’ – Ollie Green, A-level student About the author Dennis Sherwood is a management consultant with experience of solving complex problems. He has a Physics Masters from the University of Cambridge, an MPhil in Molecular Biophysics and Biochemistry from Yale University and a PhD in biology from the University of California in San Diego. After being a consulting partner at Deloitte Haskins + Sells, and Coopers & Lybrand, he became an executive director at Goldman Sachs. He now runs his own business, The Silver Bullet Machine Manufacturing Company Limited, specialising in organisational creativity and innovation. He is author of 14 books. Extract - Foreword Gold standard! Well, maybe not! For many years England’s GCSE and A-level qualifications have enjoyed an international reputation as world-leading. They have frequently been cited as ‘gold standard’ examinations. In this book Dennis Sherwood applies forensic analysis, in an accessible format, to one aspect of those qualifications – the grades awarded to each student on results day. His expert commentary leaves us in no doubt that the architecture of reliability is nothing more than a fancy façade on a house that’s built on sand. This is not a book about whether examinations are the best way to assess authentic learning. That’s a different debate, although there’s evidence here that excessive reliance on end-of-course examinations exacerbates the great grading scandal. This is also not a book about whether the content of our examination-driven school and college curriculum is well-designed, fit for purpose or sufficiently visionary for the future needs of students. That too is a long overdue discussion which should inform public policy, but Dennis retains his focus on one pressing issue. Are the grades awarded to students at the end of the examination process a reliable indicator of their performance and ability? Can those grades be trusted to determine suitability for advanced academic study or access to employment? Do they serve to differentiate authentically between one student and the next? We are all familiar with the results day photographs that accompany the headlines in August. Enthusiastic celebrations with beaming smiles. Images that are carefully contrived to align with the supporting text as ‘Camelia’ (or whoever) progresses to a top university with her four A* grades or ‘Daniel’ revealed to be a prodigy as he attains twelve grade 9’s in his GCSEs. Their results may well be impressive and will certainly open doors towards privileged academic opportunities. But what if the student with AAB is actually no better, in any meaningful sense, than the student with BAC? What if these grades lack the precision that they appear to convey? Is there an element of unreliability in how they are awarded – such that two otherwise identical candidates may as well roll a dice alongside completing their examination paper to determine which, say, of two adjacent grades they may ultimately be awarded? If Dennis is right – and I think he is – then a great grading scandal unfolds before our eyes every summer... [Buy the book to continue reading the foreword] Dr Robin Bevan, Headteacher, Southend High School for Boys and NEU Past National President, 2020-21

This book is about the behaviour of systems. Systems are important, for we interact with them all the time, and many of the actions we take are influenced by a system - for example, the system of performance measures in an organisation influences, often very strongly, how individuals within that organisation behave. Furthermore, sometimes we are involved in the design of systems, as is any manager contributing to the definition of what those performance measures might be. That manager will want to ensure that all the proposed performance measures will drive the 'right' behaviours rather than (inadvertently) encouraging dysfunctional 'game playing', and so anticipating how the performance measurement system will work in practice is a vital part of a wise design process. Some of the systems with which we interact are local, such as your organisation's performance measurement system. Some systems, however, are distant, but nonetheless very real, such as the healthcare system, the education system, the legal system and the climate system. Systems, therefore, exist on all scales, from the local to the global. And all systems are complex, some hugely so. That's why understanding how systems behave can be very helpful. Systems are complex for two main reasons. First, the manner in which they behave over time can be very hard to anticipate - and anticipating the future sensibly is of course a key objective of management. Second, the 'entities' within a system can be connected together in very complex ways, so that an intervention 'here' can result in an effect 'there', perhaps a long time afterward. Sometimes this can be surprising, and so we talk of 'unintended consequences' - but this is of course a euphemism for 'because I didn't understand how this system behaves, I had not anticipated that'. Systems thinking, the subject matter of this book, is the disciplined study of systems, and causal loop diagrams - the 'pictures' of this 'picture book' - are a very insightful way to represent the connectedness of the entities from which any system is composed, so taming that system's complexity.

This book is about the behaviour of systems. Systems are important, for we interact with them all the time, and many of the actions we take are influenced by a system - for example, the system of performance measures in an organisation influences, often very strongly, how individuals within that organisation behave. Furthermore, sometimes we are involved in the design of systems, as is any manager contributing to the definition of what those performance measures might be. That manager will want to ensure that all the proposed performance measures will drive the 'right' behaviours rather than (inadvertently) encouraging dysfunctional 'game playing', and so anticipating how the performance measurement system will work in practice is a vital part of a wise design process. Some of the systems with which we interact are local, such as your organisation's performance measurement system. Some systems, however, are distant, but nonetheless very real, such as the healthcare system, the education system, the legal system and the climate system. Systems, therefore, exist on all scales, from the local to the global. And all systems are complex, some hugely so. That's why understanding how systems behave can be very helpful. Systems are complex for two main reasons. First, the manner in which they behave over time can be very hard to anticipate - and anticipating the future sensibly is of course a key objective of management. Second, the 'entities' within a system can be connected together in very complex ways, so that an intervention 'here' can result in an effect 'there', perhaps a long time afterward. Sometimes this can be surprising, and so we talk of 'unintended consequences' - but this is of course a euphemism for 'because I didn't understand how this system behaves, I had not anticipated that'. Systems thinking, the subject matter of this book, is the disciplined study of systems, and causal loop diagrams - the 'pictures' of this 'picture book' - are a very insightful way to represent the connectedness of the entities from which any system is composed, so taming that system's complexity.

A complete account of the theory of the diffraction of x-rays by crystals with particular reference to the processes of determining the structures of protein molecules, this book is aimed primarily at structural biologists and biochemists but will also be valuable to those entering the field with a background in physical sciences or chemistry. It may be used at any post-school level, and develops from first principles all relevant mathematics, diffraction and wave theory, assuming no mathematical knowledge beyond integral calculus.
The book covers a host of important topics in the area, including:
- The practical aspects of sample preparation and x-ray data collection, using both laboratory and synchrotron sources
- Data analysis at both theoretical and practical levels
- The important role played by the Patterson function in structure analysis by both molecular replacement and experimental phasing approaches
- Methods for improving the resulting electron density map
- The theoretical basis of methods used in refinement of protein crystal structures
- In-depth explanation of the crucial task of defining the binding sites of ligands and drug molecules
- The complementary roles of other diffraction methods which reveal further detail of great functional importance in a crystal structure.

Thermodynamics is fundamental to university and college curricula in chemistry, physics, engineering and many life sciences around the world. It is also notoriously difficult for students to understand, learn and apply. What makes this book different, and special, is the clarity of the text. The writing style is fluid, natural and lucid, and everything is explained in a logical and transparent manner. Thermodynamics is a deep, and important, branch of science, and this book does not make it "easy". But it does make it intelligible. This book introduces a new, 'Fourth Law' of Thermodynamics' based on the notion of Gibbs free energy, which underpins almost every application of thermodynamics and which the authors claim is worthy of recognition as a 'law'. The last four chapters bring thermodynamics into the twenty-first century, dealing with bioenergetics (how living systems capture and use free energy), macromolecule assembly (how proteins fold), and macromolecular aggregation (how, for example, virus capsids assemble). This is of great current relevance to students of biochemistry, biochemical engineering and pharmacy, and is covered in very few other texts on thermodynamics. The book also contains many novel and effective examples, such as the explanation of why friction is irreversible, the proof of the depression of the freezing point, and the explanation of the biochemical standard state.

A complete account of the theory of the diffraction of X-rays by crystals, with particular reference to the processes of determining the structures of protein molecules. This book is aimed primarily at structural biologists and biochemists but will also be valuable to those entering the field with a background in physical sciences or chemistry. It may be used at any post-school level, and develops from first principles all relevant mathematics, diffraction and wave theory, assuming no mathematical knowledge beyond integral calculus. The book covers a host of important topics in the area, including: - The practical aspects of sample preparation and X-ray data collection, using both laboratory and synchrotron sources - Data analysis at both theoretical and practical levels - The important role played by the Patterson function in structure analysis, by both molecular replacement and experimental phasing approaches - Methods for improving the resulting electron density map - The theoretical basis of methods used in refinement of protein crystal structures - In-depth explanation of the crucial task of defining the binding sites of ligands and drug molecules - The complementary roles of other diffraction methods: these reveal further detail of great functional importance in a crystal structure.

Thermodynamics is fundamental to university and college curricula in chemistry, physics, engineering and many life sciences around the world. It is also notoriously difficult for students to understand, learn and apply. What makes this book different, and special, is the clarity of the text. The writing style is fluid, natural and lucid, and everything is explained in a logical and transparent manner. Thermodynamics is a deep, and important, branch of science, and this book does not make it "easy". But it does make it intelligible. This book introduces a new, 'Fourth Law' of Thermodynamics' based on the notion of Gibbs free energy, which underpins almost every application of thermodynamics and which the authors claim is worthy of recognition as a 'law'. The last four chapters bring thermodynamics into the twenty-first century, dealing with bioenergetics (how living systems capture and use free energy), macromolecule assembly (how proteins fold), and macromolecular aggregation (how, for example, virus capsids assemble). This is of great current relevance to students of biochemistry, biochemical engineering and pharmacy, and is covered in very few other texts on thermodynamics. The book also contains many novel and effective examples, such as the explanation of why friction is irreversible, the proof of the depression of the freezing point, and the explanation of the biochemical standard state.