Based on an analysis of security cooperation (SC) data and state fragility scores for 107 countries in 1991-2008, the report describes the correlation between provision of SC by the United States and a reduction in partner state fragility.

The U.S. government is facing the dual challenge of building its own interagency capacity for conducting stability operations while simultaneously building partner capacity (BPC) for stability operations. This study finds that although BPC and stability operations are receiving a good deal of attention in official strategy and planning documents, insufficient attention is being paid to the details of an integrated strategy.

Highlights key factors in South Asia imperiling U.S. interests, and suggests how and where the U.S. military might play an expanded, influential role. It suggests steps the military might take to better advance and defend U.S. interests in the area. This monograph highlights key factors in South Asia imperiling U.S. interests, and suggests how and where the U.S. military might play an expanded, influential role. It suggests seven steps the military might take to better advance and defend U.S. interests in South Asia, the Middle East, and Asia at large. Washington should intensify involvement in South Asia and become more influential with the governments there. Given the area's potential for violence, it should also shape part of the U.S. military to meet potential crises.

How does the Army plan to ensure its continued access to potential trouble spots around the world? The authors developed scenarios and conducted political-military games to determine what strategies, tactics, and capabilities potential adversaries might use to complicate U.S. access to key areas and how effective the U.S. counters to these tactics are. They were sanguine about the ability of the U.S. to prevail in the short-term but also identified several conc erns and suggested areas of improvement, including expanding the number of in-theater bases that might be available; enhancing the flexibility and deployability of U.S. forces to more austere bases; and upgrading detection, warning, and force protection measures.

One-liner: A framework for intelligence analysts to use to think systematically about the potential for the rise of a peer competitor to the United States. The potential emergence of a peer competitor is probably the most important long-term planning challenge for the Department of Defense. This report addresses the issue by developing a conceptual framework of how a proto-peer (meaning a state that is not yet a peer but has the potential to become one) might interact with the hegemon (the dominant global power). The central aspect of the framework is an interaction between the main strategies for power aggregation available to the proto-peer and the main strategies for countering the rise of a peer available to the hegemon. Then, using exploratory modeling techniques, the pathways of the various proto-peer and hegemon interactions are modeled to identify the specific patterns and combinations of actions that might lead to rivalries. The dominant power has an array of options available to limit the growth of its rivals or to change their ultimate intentions. Too confrontational a strategy, however, risks making a potential neutral power into a foe, while too conciliatory a stance may speed the growth of a competitor. Exploratory modeling suggests which attributes of the countries are most important and the sensitivity of the dominant power to perception errors.