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In this book, the authors explore the controversial Iranian nuclear
programme through the conceptual lens of nuclear hedging. In 2002,
revelations regarding undeclared nuclear facilities thrust Iran's
nuclear activities under the spotlight and prompted concerns that
Tehran was pursuing nuclear weapons. Iran has always denied nuclear
weapons aspirations, yet it cannot be disputed that the Islamic
Republic has gone well beyond what is required for a civil nuclear
programme based on energy production and scientific research. What,
then, is the nature and significance of Iran's nuclear behaviour?
Does it form part of a coherent strategy? What can Iran's actions
in the nuclear field tell us about Tehran's intentions? And what
does the Iranian case teach us about proliferation behaviour more
generally? This book addresses these questions by exploring the
nature of nuclear hedging and how this approach might be
identified, before applying this logic to the Iranian case. It
provides fresh insights into the inherently opaque area of nuclear
proliferation and a more nuanced interpretation of the Iranian
nuclear challenge.
For over a decade now, thinking on regional relations in the Gulf
has focused on the competition for regional hegemony between Iran
and Saudi Arabia. Today, this perspective is outdated. The smaller
Gulf Arab states, led by the United Arab Emirates, are calling for
their own goals and interests to be considered and a new regional
order has emerged. This book asesses the UAE's increasing power and
the future challenges to security it poses. It is a contemporary
history and analysis of the changing role of the UAE. Dina
Esfandiary argues that the UAE has become more assertive in the
pursuit of its own interests in the region and beyond - even when
this puts it at odds with its regional allies. This behavior
includes the build-up of its military and non-military
capabilities, the diversification of its partners, and its
willingness to use these resources. The book examines the regional
causes of the UAE's growing assertiveness - especially the 2011
Arab Uprisings - as well as the international context such as the
impact of the US-announced 'Pivot to Asia', the perceptions of
waning US power in the Middle East, and the 2015 nuclear deal. The
UAE's changing role in the region will profoundly affect regional
security. This book points towards how smaller states in the region
will interact with regional hegemons in the long term, as they
learn from the UAE's assertiveness and seek to imitate it.
The most significant challenge to the post-Cold War international
order is the growing power of ambitious states opposed to the West.
Iran, Russia and China each view the global structure through the
prism of historical experience. Rejecting the universality of
Western liberal values, these states and their governments each
consider the relative decline of Western economic hegemony as an
opportunity. Yet cooperation between them remains fragmentary. The
end of Western sanctions and the Iranian nuclear deal; the Syrian
conflict; new institutions in Central and East Asia: in all these
areas and beyond, the potential for unity or divergence is
striking. In this comprehensive study, Ariane Tabatabai and Dina
Esfandiary address the substance of this `triple axis' in the
realms of energy, trade, and military security. In particular they
scrutinise Iran-Russia and the often overlooked field of Iran-China
relations. Their argument - that interactions between the three
will shape the world stage for decades to come - will be of
interest to anyone looking to understand the contemporary
international security puzzle.
Influential armed groups continue to confound policymakers,
diplomats, and analysts decades after their transformational
arrival on the scene in the Middle East and North Africa. The most
effective of these militias can most usefully be understood as
hybrid actors, which simultaneously work through, with, and against
the state.This joint report from The Century Foundation identifies
the factors that make some hybrid actors persistent and successful,
as measured by longevity, influence, and ability to project power
militarily as well as politically. It finds that three factors
correlate most closely with impact: constituent loyalty, resilient
state relationships, and coherent ideology. The authors of this
report examined cases in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, drawing on years
of fieldwork, to distinguish hybrid actors, classic nonstate
proxies, and aspirants to statehood all of which merit different
analytical and policy treatment. The report demonstrates the ways
that groups can shift along a spectrum as they adapt to changing
conditions.
For over a decade now, thinking on regional relations in the Gulf
has focused on the competition for regional hegemony between Iran
and Saudi Arabia. Today, this perspective is outdated. The smaller
Gulf Arab states, led by the United Arab Emirates, are calling for
their own goals and interests to be considered and a new regional
order has emerged. This book assesses the UAE's increasing power
and the future challenges to regional security it could pose. It is
a contemporary history and analysis of the changing role of the
UAE. Dina Esfandiary argues that the UAE has become more assertive
in the pursuit of its own interests in the region and beyond - even
when this puts it at odds with its regional allies. This behavior
includes the build-up of its military and non-military
capabilities, the diversification of its partners, and its
willingness to use these resources. The book examines the regional
causes of the UAE's growing assertiveness, including the 2011 Arab
Uprisings, the impact of the US-announced 'Pivot to Asia' and the
perceptions of waning US power in the Middle East, and the 2015
nuclear deal. The UAE's changing role in the region will affect
regional security. This book points towards how smaller states in
the region will interact with regional hegemons in the long term,
as they learn from the UAE's assertiveness and seek to imitate it.
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