In this volume we present some of the papers delivered at FUR-IV - the Fourth International Conference on Founda tions and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory in Budapest, June 1988. The FUR Conferences have provided an appreciated forum every two years since 1982 within which scientists can report recent issues and prospective applications of decision theory, and exchange ideas about controversial questions of this field. Focal points of the presented papers are: expected utility versus alterna tive utility models, concepts of risk and uncertainty, developments of game theory, and investigations of real decision making behaviour under uncertainty and/or in risky situations. We hope that this sample of papers will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers who are interested in and fami liar with this interesting and exciting issues of decision theory. A wide range of theoretical and practical questions is considered in papers included in this volume, and many of them closely related to economics. In fact, there were two Nobel-Laureates in economics among the participants: I. Herbert A. Simon (1978) and Maurice Allais (1988), who won the prize just after the conference. His paper deals with problems of cardinal utility. After a concise overview of the history and theory of cardinal utility he gives an estimate of the invariant cardinal utility function for its whole domain of variation (i. e."

In this volume we present some of the papers delivered at FUR-IV - the Fourth International Conference on Founda tions and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory in Budapest, June 1988. The FUR Conferences have provided an appreciated forum every two years since 1982 within which scientists can report recent issues and prospective applications of decision theory, and exchange ideas about controversial questions of this field. Focal points of the presented papers are: expected utility versus alterna tive utility models, concepts of risk and uncertainty, developments of game theory, and investigations of real decision making behaviour under uncertainty and/or in risky situations. We hope that this sample of papers will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers who are interested in and fami liar with this interesting and exciting issues of decision theory. A wide range of theoretical and practical questions is considered in papers included in this volume, and many of them closely related to economics. In fact, there were two Nobel-Laureates in economics among the participants: I. Herbert A. Simon (1978) and Maurice Allais (1988), who won the prize just after the conference. His paper deals with problems of cardinal utility. After a concise overview of the history and theory of cardinal utility he gives an estimate of the invariant cardinal utility function for its whole domain of variation (i. e."

Bei der Behandlung dynamischer Systeme stellt sich dem Modellbilder immer das Problem einer adaquaten Modellformulierung. Soll das Modell in stetiger oder diskreter Zeit formuliert werden? Liegen dem Modell lineare oder nichtlineare Zusammenhange zugrunde? Sind realitatsnahe Modelle im weiteren dann auch noch handhabbar? Herkommliche okonomische Modelle gehen von rationalen regularen Verhaltensmustern der Individuen aus, was zur Darstellung okonomischer Zusammenhange durch lineare Relationen fuhrt. Alle in der Realitat auftretenden Abweichungen von diesen Grundprinzipien werden als Paradoxa angesehen. Sobald nichtlineare Zusammenhange unterstellt werden, konnen jedoch zyklische und chaotische Verhaltensmuster auftreten. Wurden bedingt durch das allgemein wachsende Interesse an der Chaostheorie grundsatzlich Fragen uber adaquate Modellformulierungen in der Makrookonomie neu gestellt, und wurde die Chaostheorie bereits auf einige makrookonomische Fragestellungen angewendet, so existieren noch kaum mikrookonomische Anwendungsbeispiele. Doch gerade bei der Modellierung von Wahl- oder Kauferverhalten treten immer wieder Phanomene auf, denen lineare Modelle nicht gerecht werden. Die Fragestellung, die diesem Buch zugrundeliegt, ist, auf welche Weise herkommliche Marktreaktionsmodelle erweitert werden konnen, um Effekte wie soziale Interaktion einzelner Individuen oder zeitverzogerte Kauferreaktionen auf Werbemassnahmen darzustellen, und welche Auswirkungen diese Modellierungen auf die Systemdynamik der Verhaltensmuster haben. Nach einem kurzen Uberblick uber die Theorie nichtlinearer dynamischer Systeme wird gezeigt, wie die hierbei erhaltenen Erkenntnisse auf Marktreaktionsmodelle angewendet werden konnen. Zahlreiche Abbildungen veranschaulichen die Ergebnisse und erleichtern das Verstandnis.