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Orthodox reporting and conventional scholarship focuses on the
factors that distinguish each presidential contest and then
attempts to explain them. This book rather, demonstrates that the
politics of presidential nomination has been remarkably stable in
the United States since the 1830s and right through to 2020. A
common bandwagon dynamic, rolling once through party organizations
and now through presidential primaries, permits a simple measure
that has predicted nominations well before the decisive threshold
was reached, while allowing precise comparisons across the years.
So it becomes possible to separate the handful of things that
matter for winnowing a large and diverse society into two
individual presidential nominees. This funnel of causality moves
through the occupational and careers seedbeds of a field of
presidential aspirants, squeezing these fields by way of a small
set of structural shapers, until party factions and factional
struggles-not rules of the game, not candidate characteristics, not
nominating strategies, nor all the other ephemera so beloved of
commentators and observers-actually choose a given nominee.
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