This IMA Volume in Mathematics and its Applications TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS TO GEOPHYSICAL SYSTEMS contains papers presented at a very successful workshop on the same title. The event which was held on November 12-15, 2001 was an integral part of the IMA 2001-2002 annual program on " Mathematics in the Geosciences. " We would like to thank David R. Brillinger (Department of Statistics, Uni versity of California, Berkeley), Enders Anthony Robinson (Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University), and Fred eric Paik Schoenberg (Department of Statistics, University of California, Los Angeles) for their superb role as workshop organizers and editors of the proceedings. We are also grateful to Robert H. Shumway (Department of Statistics, University of California, Davis) for his help in organizing the four-day event. We take this opportunity to thank the National Science Foundation for its support of the IMA. Series Editors Douglas N. Arnold, Director of the IMA Fadil Santosa, Deputy Director of the IMA v PREFACE This volume contains a collection of papers that were presented dur ing the Workshop on Time Series Analysis and Applications to Geophysical Systems at the Institute for Mathematics and its Applications (IMA) at the University of Minnesota from November 12-15, 2001. This was part of the IMA Thematic Year on Mathematics in the Geosciences, and was the last in a series of four Workshops during the Fall Quarter dedicated to Dynamical Systems and Ergodic Theory."

This IMA Volume in Mathematics and its Applications TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS TO GEOPHYSICAL SYSTEMS contains papers presented at a very successful workshop on the same title. The event which was held on November 12-15, 2001 was an integral part of the IMA 2001-2002 annual program on " Mathematics in the Geosciences. " We would like to thank David R. Brillinger (Department of Statistics, Uni versity of California, Berkeley), Enders Anthony Robinson (Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University), and Fred eric Paik Schoenberg (Department of Statistics, University of California, Los Angeles) for their superb role as workshop organizers and editors of the proceedings. We are also grateful to Robert H. Shumway (Department of Statistics, University of California, Davis) for his help in organizing the four-day event. We take this opportunity to thank the National Science Foundation for its support of the IMA. Series Editors Douglas N. Arnold, Director of the IMA Fadil Santosa, Deputy Director of the IMA v PREFACE This volume contains a collection of papers that were presented dur ing the Workshop on Time Series Analysis and Applications to Geophysical Systems at the Institute for Mathematics and its Applications (IMA) at the University of Minnesota from November 12-15, 2001. This was part of the IMA Thematic Year on Mathematics in the Geosciences, and was the last in a series of four Workshops during the Fall Quarter dedicated to Dynamical Systems and Ergodic Theory."

This book can serve either as an interesting book to read for enjoyment or else as an introductory book on probability theory. It explains how probabilities are involved in daily life and in games off chance. The inauguration of the probability theory is primarily attributed to Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) and Pierre de Fermat (1601-1665). Passages from the writings of Pascal are scattered throughout the book. While contemplating a gambling problem posed by Chevalier de Mere in 1654, Blaise Pascal corresponded with Pierre de Fermat, and together they laid the fundamental groundwork of probability theory. One of Pascal's letters discusses the "Problem of Points." Two players each need a given number of points in order to win; if they separate without playing out the game, how should the stakes be divided between them? This book treats the Problem of Points, and goes on to discuss probability models, mathematical formulation, experiments, the notion of probability, and Pascal's arithmetic triangle. Pascal devised the mathematical concept of expectation (or expected value), which is of prime use in the application of probability theory. The expectation explains the features of advantageous, equitable, and disadvantageous games. Applications are made to games of chance and to life insurance. The concepts of events and favorable chances are described in terms of dice games and roulette. The addition rule and the multiplication rule for probabilities are presented. The multiplication rule is displayed graphically by means of tree diagrams. Permutations and combinations are explained. The notion of geometric probability is presented, and a discussion of Bertrand's paradox is given. An abundant collection of problems with solutions appear throughout the book.

Millions of Americans have ancestors who were involved, in one way or another, in the Salem Witchcraft epidemic of 1692. There are even more people all over the world who have a natural curiosity and a general interest in specific aspects of the witchcraft affair. Genealogy can provide a doorway to the past, as it provides a means of looking into family connections and community relationships. It helps to break down figurative stone walls and clear up misty areas to get to hard facts. Knowledge of the specific features of the events that motivated the people in the witchcraft aberration can be a source of inspiration in the understanding of otherwise inexplicable events. The location of the witchcraft outbreak in February 1692 was Salem Village. Today it is known as the town of Danvers, a name chosen to cover up the past. This book is concerned with the phase of the Salem witch-hunt that spilled over into the neighboring town of Andover. This old town of Andover embraces the modern towns of North Andover and Andover. In a letter of October 8, 1692, THOMAS BRATTLE wrote, "This consulting of these afflicted children, about their sickness, was the unhappy beginning of the unhappy troubles at poor Andover. Poor Andover does now rue the day that ever the said afflicted went among them; they lament their folly, and are an object of great pity and commiseration." This book is based upon the common threads of birth, marriage, and death that all people share and understand when looking towards the past. In 1692, the condemned witches were put to death on Gallows Hill in Salem. It is a rocky hill on the outskirts of Salem Town. Scattered with the few oaks and locust trees that are able to take root in its shallow soil, the hill overlooks the Atlantic Ocean beyond. As if it were too great, too mighty for common benefits, the ocean has no compassion, no law, no memory, no faith. Its eternal nature is hidden in mystery.