This book contains some of the newest, most exciting ideas now percolating among political scientists, from hallway conversations to conference room discussions. To spur future research, enrich classroom teaching, and direct non-specialist attention to cutting-edge ideas, a distinguished group of authors from various parts of this sprawling and pluralistic discipline has each contributed a brief essay about a single novel or insufficiently appreciated idea on some aspect of political science. The one hundred essays are concise, no more than a few pages apiece, and informal. While the contributions are highly diverse, readers can find unexpected connections across the volume, tracing echoes as well as diametrically opposed points of view. This book offers compelling points of departure for everyone who is concerned about political science -- whether as a scholar, teacher, student, or interested reader.

The classic work on qualitative methods in political science Designing Social Inquiry presents a unified approach to qualitative and quantitative research in political science, showing how the same logic of inference underlies both. This stimulating book discusses issues related to framing research questions, measuring the accuracy of data and the uncertainty of empirical inferences, discovering causal effects, and getting the most out of qualitative research. It addresses topics such as interpretation and inference, comparative case studies, constructing causal theories, dependent and explanatory variables, the limits of random selection, selection bias, and errors in measurement. The book only uses mathematical notation to clarify concepts, and assumes no prior knowledge of mathematics or statistics. Featuring a new preface by Robert O. Keohane and Gary King, this edition makes an influential work available to new generations of qualitative researchers in the social sciences.

This book contains some of the newest, most exciting ideas now percolating among political scientists, from hallway conversations to conference room discussions. To spur future research, enrich classroom teaching, and direct non-specialist attention to cutting-edge ideas, a distinguished group of authors from various parts of this sprawling and pluralistic discipline has each contributed a brief essay about a single novel or insufficiently appreciated idea on some aspect of political science. The one hundred essays are concise, no more than a few pages apiece, and informal. While the contributions are highly diverse, readers can find unexpected connections across the volume, tracing echoes as well as diametrically opposed points of view. This book offers compelling points of departure for everyone who is concerned about political science -- whether as a scholar, teacher, student, or interested reader.

The classic work on qualitative methods in political science Designing Social Inquiry presents a unified approach to qualitative and quantitative research in political science, showing how the same logic of inference underlies both. This stimulating book discusses issues related to framing research questions, measuring the accuracy of data and the uncertainty of empirical inferences, discovering causal effects, and getting the most out of qualitative research. It addresses topics such as interpretation and inference, comparative case studies, constructing causal theories, dependent and explanatory variables, the limits of random selection, selection bias, and errors in measurement. The book only uses mathematical notation to clarify concepts, and assumes no prior knowledge of mathematics or statistics. Featuring a new preface by Robert O. Keohane and Gary King, this edition makes an influential work available to new generations of qualitative researchers in the social sciences.

While heated arguments between practitioners of qualitative and quantitative research have begun to test the very integrity of the social sciences, Gary King, Robert Keohane, and Sidney Verba have produced a farsighted and timely book that promises to sharpen and strengthen a wide range of research performed in this field. These leading scholars, each representing diverse academic traditions, have developed a unified approach to valid descriptive and causal inference in qualitative research, where numerical measurement is either impossible or undesirable. Their book demonstrates that the same logic of inference underlies both good quantitative and good qualitative research designs, and their approach applies equally to each.

Providing precepts intended to stimulate and discipline thought, the authors explore issues related to framing research questions, measuring the accuracy of data and uncertainty of empirical inferences, discovering causal effects, and generally improving qualitative research. Among the specific topics they address are interpretation and inference, comparative case studies, constructing causal theories, dependent and explanatory variables, the limits of random selection, selection bias, and errors in measurement. Mathematical notation is occasionally used to clarify concepts, but no prior knowledge of mathematics or statistics is assumed. The unified logic of inference that this book explicates will be enormously useful to qualitative researchers of all traditions and substantive fields.

"Demographic Forecasting" introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance.

By showing how to include more information in statistical models, "Demographic Forecasting" carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts.Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more

This book provides a solution to the ecological inference problem, which has plagued users of statistical methods for over seventy-five years: How can researchers reliably infer individual-level behavior from aggregate (ecological) data? In political science, this question arises when individual-level surveys are unavailable (for instance, local or comparative electoral politics), unreliable (racial politics), insufficient (political geography), or infeasible (political history). This ecological inference problem also confronts researchers in numerous areas of major significance in public policy, and other academic disciplines, ranging from epidemiology and marketing to sociology and quantitative history. Although many have attempted to make such cross-level inferences, scholars agree that all existing methods yield very inaccurate conclusions about the world. In this volume, Gary King lays out a unique--and reliable--solution to this venerable problem.

King begins with a qualitative overview, readable even by those without a statistical background. He then unifies the apparently diverse findings in the methodological literature, so that only one aggregation problem remains to be solved. He then presents his solution, as well as empirical evaluations of the solution that include over 16,000 comparisons of his estimates from real aggregate data to the known individual-level answer. The method works in practice.

King's solution to the ecological inference problem will enable empirical researchers to investigate substantive questions that have heretofore proved unanswerable, and move forward fields of inquiry in which progress has been stifled by this problem.

An easy reading 'coffee table' book, exploring the essence and outstanding beauty of the English landscape through a photographic journey during the magic hour. The period in time following sunrise and preceding sunset. Landscape photographer Gary King has captured a stunning collection of thought provoking images, over three years in the making. With over a hundred pages of gorgeous full colour photographs, these alluring landscapes capture the beauty of what mother nature is capable of. The photographs include a wide selection of landscapes, from barren, desolate moorland to wide, rugged coastal vistas. With it's uncoated, matt finish interior pages and gloss paperback cover, this is a wonderful, unpretentious 'magbook' style publication.

This study addresses the potential of palaeoentomological remains to stand as evidence of past trade and culture contact. Three methodological tools are used to evaluate the effectiveness of insect subfossils as palaeoeconomic indicators: palaeoecology, biogeography, and isotopic analysis. Underpinning each of the methodological approaches is the premise that specific insect fauna are notably stenotopic in their distributional range. By superimposing the physiological and ecological habits of modern species over the archaeological record, they may effectively serve as analogues to interpret palaeoentomological evidence. In addition to the three applied methodologies, the potential for palaeoentomological remains to yield assayable genetic sequences is explored and ancient DNA recovered from preserved Roman and medieval specimens. If aDNA preservation is widespread in palaeoentomological remains, a phylogeographic method is conceivable as a means for assessing past trade and migration.

No one, from the CEO down to the lowest level worker, intentionally sets out to create waste or fail at their assigned work tasks. Its human nature to strive for and attain success in things we set out to do. Unfortunately many of us unwittingly pursue the path of least resistanceeven when were pursuing our goals. Shortcuts multiply over time as we attempt to circumvent less desirable work tasks, and in doing so, we contribute to errors, defects, waste and risk that not only draws on your bottom-line, but jeopardizes productivity, customer satisfaction and loyalty, and ultimately the future of your organization Getting Business Fit takes a cut-to-the-chase approach in identifying, quantifying and setting out to eliminate the non-value work and waste in your organization. The fact that we are amidst a great recession, there is no better time than now to eliminate the waste in your organization and pursue business fitness. All you need is your sincerity to act, organizational commitment from your leadership team, the empowerment of your workforce, and Garys five simple steps to getting business fit.

Drawing upon the recent explosion of research in the field, a diverse group of scholars surveys the latest strategies for solving ecological inference problems, the process of trying to infer individual behavior from aggregate data. The uncertainties and information lost in aggregation make ecological inference one of the most difficult areas of statistical inference, but these inferences are required in many academic fields, as well as by legislatures and the Courts in redistricting, marketing research by business, and policy analysis by governments. This wide-ranging collection of essays offers many fresh and important contributions to the study of ecological inference.

Drawing upon the explosion of research in the field, a diverse group of scholars surveys strategies for solving ecological inference problems, the process of trying to infer individual behavior from aggregate data. The uncertainties and information lost in aggregation make ecological inference one of the most difficult areas of statistical inference, but these inferences are required in many academic fields, as well as by legislatures and the Courts in redistricting, marketing research by business, and policy analysis by governments. This wide-ranging collection of essays, first published in 2004, offers many important contributions to the study of ecological inference.

One of the hallmarks of the development of political science as a discipline has been the creation of new methodologies by scholars within the discipline--methodologies that are well-suited to the analysis of political data. Gary King has been a leader in the development of these new approaches to the analysis of political data. In his book, Unifying Political Methodology, King shows how the likelihood theory of inference offers a unified approach to statistical modeling for political research and thus enables us to better analyze the enormous amount of data political scientists have collected over the years. Newly reissued, this book is a landmark in the development of political methodology and continues to challenge scholars and spark controversy. Gary King's Unifying Political Methodology is at once an introduction to the likelihood theory of statistical inference and an evangelist's call for us to change our ways of doing political methodology. One need not accept the altar call to benefit enormously from the book, but the intellectual debate over the call for reformation is likely to be the enduring contribution of the work. --Charles Franklin, American Political Science Review King's book is one of the only existing books which deal with political methodology in a clear and consistent framework. The material in it is now and will continue to be essential reading for all serious students and researchers in political methodology. --R. Michael Alvarez, California Institute of Tech-nology Gary King is Professor of Government, Harvard University. One of the leading thinkers in political methodology, he is the author of A Solution to the Ecological InferenceProblem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data and other books and articles.