Why was the European Monetary System in 1992-93 swept by waves of disruptive speculative attacks? And what lessons emerged from that episode as regards the future of the European Monetary Union? This book provides a comprehensive assessment of the causes and implications of the 1992-93 crisis of the exchange rate mechanism. Cogent factual presentation, original theoretical analysis, and an interpretation rooted in theory, make this treatment by three leading economists essential reading to understand the process toward economic and political integration in Europe.

Why was the European Monetary System in 1992-93 swept by waves of disruptive speculative attacks? And what lessons emerged from that episode as regards the future of the European Monetary Union? This book provides a comprehensive assessment of the causes and implications of the 1992-93 crisis of the exchange rate mechanism. Cogent factual presentation, original theoretical analysis, and an interpretation rooted in theory, make this treatment by three leading economists essential reading to understand the process toward economic and political integration in Europe.

A central puzzle in international finance is that real exchange rates are volatile and, in stark contradiction to efficient risk-sharing, negatively correlated with cross-country consumption ratios. This paper shows that a standard international business cycle model with incomplete asset markets augmented with distribution services can account quantitatively for these properties of real exchange rates. Distribution services, intensive in local inputs, drive a wedge between producer and consumer prices, thus lowering the impact of terms-of-trade changes on optimal agents' decisions. This reduces the price elasticity of tradables separately from assumptions on preferences. Two very different patterns of the international transmission of positive technology shocks generate the observed degree of risk-sharing: one associated with improving, the other with deteriorating terms of trade and real exchange rate. In both cases, large equilibrium swings in international relative prices magnify consumption risk due to country-specific shocks, running counter to risk sharing. Suggestive evidence on the effect of productivity changes in U.S. manufacturing is found in support of the first transmission pattern, questioning the presumption that terms-of-trade movements in response to supply shocks invariably foster international risk-pooling.

The Economic Consequences of the Peace is one of the most famous books in the history of economic thought. It is also one of the most polemical. Published as a response to what Keynes saw as the grave errors of the Treaty of Versailles, the book predicted that war reparations and other harsh terms imposed on Germany would lead to its collapse, which in turn would lead to devastating consequences for Europe and the wider world. Predictions that we now know to have been all too accurate. Keynes's Economic Consequences of the Peace after 100 Years brings together an international team of experts to assess the legacy of Keynes's best-selling work. It compiles a series of wide-ranging chapters, exploring the varied influence of his ideas and policy contributions. Written in an accessible style, it recovers the importance of this history and examines the continued relevance of Keynes's controversial book.