As noted in the Foreword, this report is one of several volumes resulting from this study of future health care technology. The purpose of the study, as formulated by the STG, was to analyze future health care technology. Part of the task was to develop an 'early warning system' for health care technology. The primary goal of the project was to develop a list or description of a number of possible and probable future health care technologies, as well as information on their importance. Within the limits of time and money, this has been done. However, given the vast number of possible future health care technologies, complete information on the importance of each area could not be developed in any depth for all technology. Therefore, four specific technologies were chosen and were prospectively assessed. These future technologies were examined in more depth, looking particularly at their future health and policy implications. Subsequently, the project was extended to September 1986, and two additional technologies were chosen for assessment.

As noted in the Foreword, this report is one of several volumes resulting from this study of future health care technology. The purpose of the study, as formulated by the STG, was to analyze future health care technology. Part of the task was to develop an 'early warning system' for health care technology. The primary goal of the project was to develop a list or description of a number of possible and probable future health care technologies, as well as information on their importance. Within the limits of time and money, this has been done. However, given the vast number of possible future health care technologies, complete information on the importance of each area could not be developed in any depth for all technology. Therefore, four specific technologies were chosen and were prospectively assessed. These future technologies were examined in more depth, looking particularly at their future health and policy implications. Subsequently, the project was extended to September 1986, and two additional technologies will be assessed.

As noted in the Foreword, this report is one of several volumes resulting from this study of future health care technology. The purpose of the study, as formulated by the STG, was to analyze future health care technology. Part of the task was to develop an 'early warning system' for health care technology. The primary goal of the project was to develop a list or description of a number of possible and probable future health care technologies, as well as information on their importance. Within the limits of time and money, this has been done. However, given the vast number of possible future health care technologies, complete information on the importance of each area could not be developed in any depth for all technology. Therefore, four specific technologies were chosen and were prospectively assessed. These future technologies were examined in more depth, looking particularly at their future health and policy implications. Subsequently, the project was extended to September 1987, and two additional technologies were chosen for assessment.

As noted in the Foreword, this report is one of several volumes resulting from this study of future health care technology. The purpose of the study, as formulated by the STG, was to analyze future health care technology. Part of the task was to develop an 'early warning system' for health care technology. The primary goal of the project was to develop a list or description of a number of possible and probable future health care technologies, as well as information on their importance. Within the limits of time and money, this has been done. However, given the vast number of possible future health care technologies, complete information on the importance of each area could not be developed in any depth for all technology. Therefore, four specific technologies were chosen and were prospectively assessed. These future technologies were examined in more depth, looking particularly at their future health and policy implications. Subsequently, the project was extended to September 1986, and two additional technologies were chosen for assessment.

As noted in the Foreword, this report is the second of several volumes resulting from this study of future health care technology. The purpose of the study, as formulated by the STG, was to analyze future health care technology. Part of the task was to develop an 'early warning system' for health care technology. The primary goal of the project was to develop a list or description of a number of possible and probable future health care technologies, as well as information on their importance. Within the limits of time and money, this has been done. This report is the description of anticipated future health care technologies. However, given the vast number of possible future health care technologies, complete information on the importance of each area could not be developed in any depth for all technology. Therefore, four specific technologies were chosen and were prospectively assessed. These future technologies were examined in more depth, looking particularly at their future health and policy implications. Subsequently, the project was extended to September 1987, and two additional technologies are being assessed.

This report, Anticipating and Assessing Health Care Technology, is the first report from the STG Commission on Future Health Care Technology. The STG (Stuurgroep Toekomstscenario's Gezondheidzorg) was established in 1983 as an independent advisory group to the State Secretary for Welfare, Public Health, and Cultural Affairs (WVC) to assist in long-range health planning efforts. Thus far, STG commissions have examined cardiovascular disease, cancer, aging, and life styles as issues of importance to the health of the Dutch population in the future. Obviously, health care technology is of great concern to the government. On the one hand, technology is one of the major tools to promote a healthy population. On the other hand, the costs of health care have been rising at an alarming rate in recent years. It was these two facts, along with the social consequences of certain technologies such as genetic screening, that led the STG to establish the Commission on Future Health Care Technology in 1985. The European Office of the World Health Organization (EURO) cosponsored the project. The Health Council (Gezondheidsraad) agreed to cooperate with the project by furnishing space and intellectual and logistical support. The goal of the Commission's work is to develop sufficient information on future technological developments in health and health care to assist planning for their consequences. Subsequent reports will give more detail on future health care technologies and will provide in-depth assessments on a few specific technological areas.

Since 1945, a broad array of health care technologies have come into use, including antibiotics, anti-hypertensive drugs, oral diuretics, oral contraceptives, psycho-pharmaceuticals, corticosteroids, vaccines, open-heart surgery, genetics screening, automated clinical laboratories, renal dialysis, and cardiac pacemakers. Unquestionably, these technologies have brought benefits to millions. However, as costs of health care have risen rapidly, governments have increasingly singled out expensive technology as the culprit. The result has been changes in the methods of paying for health care in most countries to control cost rises. This has led to a slowing of technological change in some countries and increasing necessities to choose in all countries. This timely work describes how technology assessment critically evaluates the benefits, costs, and social implications of technology. The book presents an international perspective on health care technology's development and diffusion, and explains how health care technology can enlighten difficult choices faced by policy-makers, clinicians, and patients.