This essay collection focuses on the relationship between continuous time models and Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic (ARCH) models and applications. For the first time, Modelling Stock Market Volatility provides new insights about the links between these two models and new work on practical estimation methods for continuous time models. Featuring the pioneering scholarship of Daniel Nelson, the text presents research about the discrete time model, continuous time limits and optimal filtering of ARCH models, and the specification and estimation of continuous time processes. This work will lead to a rapid growth in their empirical application as they are increasingly subjected to routine specification testing.
Key Features
* Provides for the first time new insights on the links between continuous time and ARCH models
* Collects seminal scholarship by some of the most renowned researchers in finance and econometrics
* Captures complex arguments underlying the approximation and proper statistical modelling of continuous time volatility dynamics

The aspects of this text which we believe are novel, at least in degree, include: an effort to motivate different sections with practical examples and an empirical orientation; an effort to intersperse several easily motivated examples throughout the book and to maintain some continuity in these examples; and the extensive use of Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate particular aspects of the problems and estimators being considered. In terms of material being presented, the unique aspects include the first chapter which attempts to address the use of empirical methods in the social sciences, the seventh chapter which considers models with discrete dependent variables and unobserved variables. Clearly these last two topics in particular are quite advanced--more advanced than material that is currently available on the subject. These last two topics are also currently experiencing rapid development and are not adequately described in most other texts.

In 1978, the Social and Demographic Research Institute of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, received a grant from the National Institute of Justice to undertake a comprehensive review of the literature on weapons, crime, and violence in the United States. The purpose of the project is best described as a "sifting and winnowing" of the claims and counterclaims from both sides of the Great American Gun War--the perennial struggle in Ameri-can political life over what to do, if anything, about guns, about violence, and about crime. The review and analysis of the available studies consumed the better part of three years; the results of this work are contained in this volume.

The intention of any review is to take stock of the available fund of knowledge in some topical area. Under the Gun is no different: our goal has been to glean from the volumes of previous studies those facts that, in our view, seem firmly and certainly established; those hypotheses that seem adequately supported by, or at least approximately consistent with, the best available research evidence; and those areas or topics about which, it seems, we need to know a lot more than we do. One of our major conclusions can be stated in advance: despite the large number of studies that have been done, many critically important questions have not been adequately researched, and some of them have not been examined at all.

Much of the available research in the area of weapons and crime has been done by advocates for one or another policy position. As a consequence, the manifest intent of many "studies" is to persuade rather than to inform. We have tried to approach the topic from a purely agnostic point of view, treating as an open question what policies should be enacted with regard to gun, or crime, control. Thus, we have tried to judge each study on its own merits, on the basis of the routine standards normally applied to social-scientific research, and not on the basis of how effectively it argues for a particular policy direction. It would, of course, be presumptuous to claim that we have set aside all our own biases in conducting this study. Whether or not our treatment is fair and objective is clearly something for the reader, and not us, to decide.

We have considered it to be a demanding assignment to provide a complete exposition dealing with the nature of radiation, its effects, and protection against it to workers in health-related activities. "Radiation" (and more precisely "ionizing radiation") is emitted by X-ray machines, nuclear reactors, and nuclear weapons, but also comes from natural sources to which we are all exposed. It would have been easier to deal with this subject area with the terminology and mathematics employed by specialists. However, although most of the potential readers probably have obtained further pertinent knowledge, we assume no more than a high school education in science and mathematics and the challenge was to provide maximum information within this constraint. This book contains five sections: (A) Radiation Physics, (B) Radiological Physics, (C) Radiation Biology, (D) Radiation Effects on Human Populations, and (E) Radiation Protection. Each section is preceded by a synopsis covering its essential features. It provides sufficient information to enable readers to obtain a general under standing of the subject of the section and an adequate background for comprehension of other sections. The more detailed presentation in the bulk of each section is followed by appendixes that generally contain more advanced topics. This scheme necessarily involves some repetition but permits a more flexible approach for readers who are especially interested in the contents of particular sections."

Armed and Considered Dangerous is a book about "bad guys" and their guns. But Wright and Rossi contend that for every suspected criminal who owns and abuses a firearm, a hundred or more average citizens own guns for sport, for recreation, for self-protection, and for other reasons generally regarded as appropriate or legitimate. Armed and Considered Dangerous is the most ambitious survey ever undertaken of criminal acquisition, possession, and use of guns. There are vast differences between the average gun owner and the average gun-abusing felon, but the analyses reported here do not suggest any obvious way to translate these differences into gun control policies. Most policy implications drawn from the book are negative in character: this will not work for this reason, that will not work for that reason, and so on. When experts are asked, "Okay, then what will work?" they usually fall back on the old warhorses of poverty, the drug problem, or the inadequate resources of the criminal justice system, and otherwise have little to say. This is not a failure of social science. It simply asks more of the data than the data were ever intended to provide. Several of Wright and Rossi's findings have become "coin of the realm" in the gun control debate, cited frequently by persons who have long since forgotten where the data came from or what their limitations are. Several other findings, including many that are important, have been largely ignored. Still other findings have been superseded by better and more recent data or rendered anachronistic by intervening events. With the inclusion of a new introduction detailing recent statistics and updated information this new edition of Armed and Considered Dangerous is a rich source of information for all interested in learning about weapon behavior and ownership in America.

From the first edition . . . "There are a number of outstanding features to this book. First, introducing the key concepts in an easy-to-understand fashion. Second, using specific examples as concrete illustrations of the methods being utilized. Another positive feature is the in-depth appendix, which provides many additional sources of information on the subject of program evaluation. . . . This comprehensive resource presents a realistic look at the potential and the pitfalls of program evaluation. The authors' examination of the issues from various angles produces a document that can be a useful guide to program evaluation." --The Journal of Applied Rehabilitation Counseling "Extremely interesting and well written. . . . Key terms are clearly introduced and the reader is given an excellent introduction to the role program evaluation might play in programs at different stages of development. A wide variety of interesting examples drawn from disparate fields of practice are used to illustrate key points. An appendix is provided to guide the reader toward the literature on program evaluation, professional associations, and organizations engaged in evaluation research." --Canadian Public Administration "The book has all the potential of becoming to program evaluation what Strunk and White's (1976) Elements of Style became for writing. Read frequently and faithfully, it could help evaluators do a better job." --James W. Trent in Adult Residential Care Journal Have you been looking for an overview of evaluation that will provide you with the big picture rather than so many details that you lose sight of what evaluation research is? Through the use of specific examples to illustrate evaluation research goals and methods, this book provides readers with an overview of the science and politics of evaluation research with comprehensive topics but selective details. New to this edition is coverage of meta-analysis, selection models, and instrumental variables. In addition, the authors have expanded the coverage of analysis of data, evaluation when the units of analysis are entire organizations of political jurisdictions, and comparisons between evaluation research and other related fields. The rich mix of examples has been expanded to include more illustrations from environmental evaluation, and the most recent studies on welfare reform, managed mental health care, and law enforcement.

Armed and Considered Dangerous is a book about "bad guys" and their guns. But Wright and Rossi contend that for every suspected criminal who owns and abuses a firearm, a hundred or more average citizens own guns for sport, for recreation, for self-protection, and for other reasons generally regarded as appropriate or legitimate. Armed and Considered Dangerous is the most ambitious survey ever undertaken of criminal acquisition, possession, and use of guns.

There are vast differences between the average gun owner and the average gun-abusing felon, but the analyses reported here do not suggest any obvious way to translate these differences into gun control policies. Most policy implications drawn from the book are negative in character: this will not work for this reason, that will not work for that reason, and so on. When experts are asked, "Okay, then what will work?" they usually fall back on the old warhorses of poverty, the drug problem, or the inadequate resources of the criminal justice system, and otherwise have little to say. This is not a failure of social science. It simply asks more of the data than the data were ever intended to provide.

Several of Wright and Rossi's findings have become "coin of the realm" in the gun control debate, cited frequently by persons who have long since forgotten where the data came from or what their limitations are. Several other findings, including many that are important, have been largely ignored. Still other findings have been superseded by better and more recent data or rendered anachronistic by intervening events. With the inclusion of a new introduction detailing recent statistics and updated information this new edition of Armed and Considered Dangerous is a rich source of information for all interested in learning about weapon behavior and ownership in America.

In 1978, the Social and Demographic Research Institute of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, received a grant from the National Institute of Justice to undertake a comprehensive review of the literature on weapons, crime, and violence in the United States. The purpose of the project is best described as a "sifting and winnowing" of the claims and counterclaims from both sides of the Great American Gun War - the perennial struggle in Ameri can political life over what to do, if anything, about guns, about violence, and about crime. The review and analysis of the available studies consumed the better part of three years; the results of this work are contained in this volume.The intention of any review is to take stock of the available fund of knowledge in some topical area. Under the Gun is no different: our goal has been to glean from the volumes of previous studies those facts that, in our view, seem firmly and certainly established; those hypotheses that seem adequately supported by, or at least approximately consistent with, the best available research evidence; and those areas or topics about which, it seems, we need to know a lot more than we do. One of our major conclusions can be stated in advance: despite the large number of studies that have been done, many critically important questions have not been adequately researched, and some of them have not been examined at all.Much of the available research in the area of weapons and crime has been done by advocates for one or another policy position. As a consequence, the manifest intent of many "studies" is to persuade rather than to inform. We have tried to approach the topic from a purely agnostic point of view, treating as an open question what policies should be enacted with regard to gun, or crime, control. Thus, we have tried to judge each study on its own merits, on the basis of the routine standards normally applied to social-scientific research, and not on the basis of how effectively it argues for a particular policy direction. It would, of course, be presumptuous to claim that we have set aside all our own biases in conducting this study. Whether or not our treatment is fair and objective is clearly something for the reader, and not us, to decide.

For the past decade, transaction, and now Society, has dedicated itself to the task of reporting the strains and conflicts within the American system. The work done in the magazine has crossed disciplinary boundaries. This represents much more than simple cross-disciplinary team efforts. It embodies rather a recognition that the social world cannot be easily carved into neat academic disciplines; that, indeed, the study of the experience of blacks in American ghettos, or the manifold uses and abuses of agencies of law enforcement, or the sorts of overseas policies that lead to the celebration of some dictatorships and the condemnation of others, can best be examined from many viewpoints and from the vantage points of many disciplines. The editors of Society magazine are now making available in permanent form the most important work done in the magazine, supplemented in some cases by additional materials edited to reflect the tone and style developed over the years by transaction.

Belief in universal education as the means to prevent divisions among social classes has long been an important element in American society. This highly-regarded sociological study refutes prejudices against Catholic education, such as claims that Catholic schools are authoritarian, and that they no longer have a valuable role to play in society.

Andrew M. Greeley and Peter H. Rossi tackle issues about Catholic education at all levels: elementary, secondary, and college. These include reasons why families have (and have not) sent their children to Catholic schools, comparisons among different Catholic ethnic groups in their tendency to take advantage of Catholic education, effects of Catholic schools on the religiosity commitment of their students and graduates, and the relationship between religious formation in the home and in Catholic school.

Greeley and Rossi provide a complete picture of the state of American Catholic education on the verge of a new age for Catholicism in the country. Some of their findings--such as the tendency of "Catholic school Catholics" to be more "tolerant" than others--provide insight to the reasons for the profound changes in the American Catholic community that followed in subsequent years.

The research reported in this volume was designed to provide estimates of the extent of damages and injuries from certain natu ral hazards inflicted on households in the United States. In addi tion, it reports on sources of aid proffered to households and the extent to which there are differences among households in the receipt of help. This volume represents the latest installment in a series of monographs stemming from the Social and Demographic Re search Institute's (SADRI) program of research on the effects of natural hazard events in the United States. The first volume in our series (Wright, Rossi, Wright, & Weber-Burdin, 1979) reported on the long-range effects of natural hazards on the population and housing stocks of neighborhoods and communities. The second volume (Rossi et aI., 1982) assessed the support for hazard mitiga tion policies existing among local and state political elites in a sample of states and local communities in the United States. The main findings of these two monographs can be summarized as follows. First, long-range effects (up to 10 years postevent) of nat ural hazard events are minimal: Local communities and neighbor hoods that have been impacted by floods, tornadoes, or hurricanes appear to be no different in their population and housing growth patterns over the period 1960 to 1970 than comparable commu nities that went unscathed. Apparently, household and communi ty resources plus outside aid were sufficient ordinarily to restore impacted areas to normal growth patterns."

We have considered it to be a demanding assignment to provide a complete exposition dealing with the nature of radiation, its effects, and protection against it to workers in health-related activities. "Radiation" (and more precisely "ionizing radiation") is emitted by X-ray machines, nuclear reactors, and nuclear weapons, but also comes from natural sources to which we are all exposed. It would have been easier to deal with this subject area with the terminology and mathematics employed by specialists. However, although most of the potential readers probably have obtained further pertinent knowledge, we assume no more than a high school education in science and mathematics and the challenge was to provide maximum information within this constraint. This book contains five sections: (A) Radiation Physics, (B) Radiological Physics, (C) Radiation Biology, (D) Radiation Effects on Human Populations, and (E) Radiation Protection. Each section is preceded by a synopsis covering its essential features. It provides sufficient information to enable readers to obtain a general under standing of the subject of the section and an adequate background for comprehension of other sections. The more detailed presentation in the bulk of each section is followed by appendixes that generally contain more advanced topics. This scheme necessarily involves some repetition but permits a more flexible approach for readers who are especially interested in the contents of particular sections.

The most accurate and comprehensive picture of homelessness to date, this study offers a powerful explanation of its causes, proposes short- and long-term solutions, and documents the striking contrasts between the homeless of the 1950s and 1960s and the contemporary homeless population, which is younger and contains more women, children, and blacks.

Evaluation: A Systematic Approach is the bestselling comprehensive introduction to the field of programme evaluation, covering the range of evaluation research activities used in appraising the design, implementation, effectiveness and efficiency of social programmes. This Eighth Edition includes a new practical chapter on planning an evaluation.

Contributing Authors Include Edward Norbeck, George De Vos, Robert A. Levine, And Many Others. Dorsey Series In Anthropology And Sociology.

Contributing Authors Include Edward Norbeck, George De Vos, Robert A. Levine, And Many Others. Dorsey Series In Anthropology And Sociology.

From the first edition . . .

"There are a number of outstanding features to this book. First, introducing the key concepts in an easy-to-understand fashion. Second, using specific examples as concrete illustrations of the methods being utilized. Another positive feature is the in-depth appendix, which provides many additional sources of information on the subject of program evaluation. . . . This comprehensive resource presents a realistic look at the potential and the pitfalls of program evaluation. The authors' examination of the issues from various angles produces a document that can be a useful guide to program evaluation."

--The Journal of Applied Rehabilitation Counseling

"Extremely interesting and well written. . . . Key terms are clearly introduced and the reader is given an excellent introduction to the role program evaluation might play in programs at different stages of development. A wide variety of interesting examples drawn from disparate fields of practice are used to illustrate key points. An appendix is provided to guide the reader toward the literature on program evaluation, professional associations, and organizations engaged in evaluation research."

--Canadian Public Administration

"The book has all the potential of becoming to program evaluation what Strunk and White's (1976) Elements of Style became for writing. Read frequently and faithfully, it could help evaluators do a better job."

--James W. Trent in Adult Residential Care Journal

Have you been looking for an overview of evaluation that will provide you with the big picture rather than so many details that you lose sight of what evaluation research is? Through the use of specific examples to illustrate evaluation research goals and methods, this book provides readers with an overview of the science and politics of evaluation research with comprehensive topics but selective details.

New to this edition is coverage of meta-analysis, selection models, and instrumental variables. In addition, the authors have expanded the coverage of analysis of data, evaluation when the units of analysis are entire organizations of political jurisdictions, and comparisons between evaluation research and other related fields. The rich mix of examples has been expanded to include more illustrations from environmental evaluation, and the most recent studies on welfare reform, managed mental health care, and law enforcement.