Fertility rates vary considerably across and within societies, and over time. Over the last three decades, social demographers have made remarkable progress in documenting these axes of variation, but theoretical models to explain family change and variation have lagged behind. At the same time, our sister disciplines-from cultural anthropology to social psychology to cognitive science and beyond-have made dramatic strides in understanding how social action works, and how bodies, brains, cultural contexts, and structural conditions are coordinated in that process. "Understanding Family Change and Variation: Toward a Theory of Conjunctural Action" argues that social demography must be reintegrated into the core of theory and research about the processes and mechanisms of social action, and proposes a framework through which that reintegration can occur. This framework posits that material and schematic structures profoundly shape the occurrence, frequency, and context of the vital events that constitute the object of social demography. Fertility and family behaviors are best understood as a function not just of individual traits, but of the structured contexts in which behavior occurs. This approach upends many assumptions in social demography, encouraging demographers to embrace the endogeneity of social life and to move beyond fruitless debates of structure versus culture, of agency versus structure, or of biology versus society.

The book that you hold in your hands is the second in a series. The two titles in the series are the following: Genetic Influences on Human Fertility and Sexuality: Theoretical and Empirical Contributions from the Biological and Behavior Sciences Edited by Joseph Lee Rodgers, David C. Rowe, & Warren B. Miller Published by Kluwer Academic Press, 2000 The Biodemography of Human Reproduction and Fertility Edited by Joseph Lee Rodgers & Hans-Peter Kohler Published by Kluwer Academic Press, 2002 The series has published chapters by researchers who study human fertility, from a particular perspective: Biodemography. We welcome your interest and participation in this developing subfield. Or, perhaps, biodemography may be better referred to as a "superfield. " Because biodemography so naturally crosses interdisciplinary boundaries, and because its application draws together researchers from disparate disciplines, it may well be more appropriate to consider that biodemography subsumes a number of other disciplines, rather than the other way around. In this preface, we will describe our own efforts and those of many others to promote and develop the study of human fertility, using methods, models, and theories from both biological and demographic domains. In December, 1997, 25 participants from three different countries gathered in Tucson, Arizona for a small conference with the title "Genetic Influences on Fertility-Related Processes. " That conference represented a fascinating blending of research from two apparently separate domains.

Fertility rates vary considerably across and within societies, and over time. Over the last three decades, social demographers have made remarkable progress in documenting these axes of variation, but theoretical models to explain family change and variation have lagged behind. At the same time, our sister disciplines-from cultural anthropology to social psychology to cognitive science and beyond-have made dramatic strides in understanding how social action works, and how bodies, brains, cultural contexts, and structural conditions are coordinated in that process. "Understanding Family Change and Variation: Toward a Theory of Conjunctural Action" argues that social demography must be reintegrated into the core of theory and research about the processes and mechanisms of social action, and proposes a framework through which that reintegration can occur. This framework posits that material and schematic structures profoundly shape the occurrence, frequency, and context of the vital events that constitute the object of social demography. Fertility and family behaviors are best understood as a function not just of individual traits, but of the structured contexts in which behavior occurs. This approach upends many assumptions in social demography, encouraging demographers to embrace the endogeneity of social life and to move beyond fruitless debates of structure versus culture, of agency versus structure, or of biology versus society.

The central aim of many studies in population research and demography is to explain cause-effect relationships among variables or events. For decades, population scientists have concentrated their efforts on estimating the 'causes of effects' by applying standard cross-sectional and dynamic regression techniques, with regression coefficients routinely being understood as estimates of causal effects. The standard approach to infer the 'effects of causes' in natural sciences and in psychology is to conduct randomized experiments. In population studies, experimental designs are generally infeasible.

In population studies, most research is based on non-experimental designs (observational or survey designs) and rarely on quasi experiments or natural experiments. Using non-experimental designs to infer causal relationships-i.e. relationships that can ultimately inform policies or interventions-is a complex undertaking. Specifically, treatment effects can be inferred from non-experimental data with a counterfactual approach. In this counterfactual perspective, causal effects are defined as the difference between the potential outcome irrespective of whether or not an individual had received a certain treatment (or experienced a certain cause). The counterfactual approach to estimate effects of causes from quasi-experimental data or from observational studies was first proposed by Rubin in 1974 and further developed by James Heckman and others.

This book presents both theoretical contributions and empirical applications of the counterfactual approach to causal inference.

The central aim of many studies in population research and demography is to explain cause-effect relationships among variables or events. For decades, population scientists have concentrated their efforts on estimating the 'causes of effects' by applying standard cross-sectional and dynamic regression techniques, with regression coefficients routinely being understood as estimates of causal effects. The standard approach to infer the 'effects of causes' in natural sciences and in psychology is to conduct randomized experiments. In population studies, experimental designs are generally infeasible.

In population studies, most research is based on non-experimental designs (observational or survey designs) and rarely on quasi experiments or natural experiments. Using non-experimental designs to infer causal relationships-i.e. relationships that can ultimately inform policies or interventions-is a complex undertaking. Specifically, treatment effects can be inferred from non-experimental data with a counterfactual approach. In this counterfactual perspective, causal effects are defined as the difference between the potential outcome irrespective of whether or not an individual had received a certain treatment (or experienced a certain cause). The counterfactual approach to estimate effects of causes from quasi-experimental data or from observational studies was first proposed by Rubin in 1974 and further developed by James Heckman and others.

This book presents both theoretical contributions and empirical applications of the counterfactual approach to causal inference.

The book that you hold in your hands is the second in a series. The two titles in the series are the following: Genetic Influences on Human Fertility and Sexuality: Theoretical and Empirical Contributions from the Biological and Behavior Sciences Edited by Joseph Lee Rodgers, David C. Rowe, & Warren B. Miller Published by Kluwer Academic Press, 2000 The Biodemography of Human Reproduction and Fertility Edited by Joseph Lee Rodgers & Hans-Peter Kohler Published by Kluwer Academic Press, 2002 The series has published chapters by researchers who study human fertility, from a particular perspective: Biodemography. We welcome your interest and participation in this developing subfield. Or, perhaps, biodemography may be better referred to as a "superfield. " Because biodemography so naturally crosses interdisciplinary boundaries, and because its application draws together researchers from disparate disciplines, it may well be more appropriate to consider that biodemography subsumes a number of other disciplines, rather than the other way around. In this preface, we will describe our own efforts and those of many others to promote and develop the study of human fertility, using methods, models, and theories from both biological and demographic domains. In December, 1997, 25 participants from three different countries gathered in Tucson, Arizona for a small conference with the title "Genetic Influences on Fertility-Related Processes. " That conference represented a fascinating blending of research from two apparently separate domains.

"Nur wer seine Optionen kennt, kann sie nutzen," lautet ein gc1ngiger Satz der Management-Lehre, der natorlich auch fOr das weit eng ere Feld der bOrsen orientierten OptionsgescMfte gilt. Die Studie von Hans-Peter Kohler vermittelt sowohl die Grundlagen des OptionsgescMftes als auch verschiedene Bewertungsmethoden fOr Optionen. Hat man den Wert einer Option (mit den jeweiligen Annahmen) ermittelt, kann man auch den Preis in Relation zu diesen sehen und entscheiden, ob er attraktiv ist. In der Praxis wird zwar auch auf den rechnerischen und inneren Wert der jewei ligen Option 8ezug genommen, da aber die Mc1rkte und Marktmechanismen keine Abbildung der "reinen Lehre' darstellen, sondern vielen EinflOssen wie auch Unvollkommenheiten unterliegen, ergeben sich ArbitragemOglichkeiten zwischen den unterschiedlichen Optionen. Je unvollkommener die Mc1rkte sind, desto mehr lohnt sich diese Arbitrage. Je mehr Marktteilnehmer jedoch das OptionsgescMft kennen, desto eher wird sich der am Markt etablierende Preis dem inneren Wert einer Option angleichen, und desto enger wird die Spanne zwischen "Ankauf" und "Verkauf' ausfallen. Wer diese ZusammenMnge versteht, erMlt in der vorliegenden Arbeit die dazugehOrige formale Ableitung. Wer sich diese jedoch erschlieBen mOchte, erMlt dafOr die theoretische Basis. Die Einbeziehung dieser Studie in die Reihe OIKOS soli vor allem dazu dienen, dem Praktiker das theoretische ROstzeug zum GescMft und dem Theorektiker die analytischen Ansc1tze der Optionspreisermittlung zur VerfOgung zu stellen."

In this book, economics meets sociology in order to investigate one of the central social changes in history: the decline of fertility. The book demonstrates how social interactions can be used to extend the rational and individual-centered approach of economists to include social norms, bounded rationality, social learning, and changing values and attitudes. The combination of these elements yields new insights into the dynamics and determinants of fertility change.